Op-Ed Commentary

 

Our View : Bush to visit Tehran?

Most observers agree that President Bush must be prepared to unveil a
dramatic new shift in policy if he is to avoid losing the initiative on Iraq
to Congress. The new Congress, now in the hands of the Democratic Paarty,
is preparing to assert its authority in foreign policy if Bush attempts to
stay the course in Iraq.

What dramatic new shift in policy is open to President Bush? He could
offer to go to Tehran just as President Nixon made a surprise visit to China
in 1973 that opened up an era in Sino-US strategic cooperation. Think of
President Bush as the new Nixon.

Bush's visit to Tehran would have one priority objective -- the initiation
of a US-Iranian strategic partnership in Iraq. Such a partnership would be
expressed in joint opposition to Sunni radicalism in Iraq, as well as joint
opposition to Muqtada al-Sadr, who leads a Shi'ite militia that opposes
Iran's plans to partition and dominate Iraq.

President Bush's supporters will argue that just as Nixon's leadership was
needed to quell long standing opposition to Mao and the Chinese communists
in the Republican Party, so will Bush's leadership be required to quell long
standing opposition in the Republican Party to the Islamic Republic and is
record of support for international terrorism.

In reality, the US and Iran have been quietly coordinating their policies in
Iraq for several months. In the most dramatic example, President Bush lent
his personal support to efforts by Iraq's leading pro-Iran politician Abul
Aziz al-Hakim to overthrow the Maliki-Sadr government in favor of a
pro-Tehran regime under Hakim's control. Only the last minute opposition
from Ayatollah Sistani blocked this US-Iran plan.

This background of an emerging Iran-US strategic partnership in Iraq helps
explain why President Bush is intent on "surging" 20,000-30,000 US troops
into Baghdad. These troops would be deployed against Iran's two main
adversaries in Iraq, the Sunni militants and Muqtada al-Sadr.

Of course, Iran could choose to oppose Bush's surge plan. Instead, Iran
could opt for unleashing the pro-Iran Badr Brigade death squads, now under
Hakim's control, against the Sunni militants and Sadr. However, such a
direct Iranian involvement in Iraq's civil war would bring substantial
disadvantages for Tehran.

First, Iran's sinister role in promoting Iraq's civil war would be exposed.
In fact, additional direct Iranian involvement in combat against the Sunni
militants and Sadr could backfire from a political standpoint and increase
support for Iran's resistance. In this scenario, Iran would find it far more
difficult, if not impossible, to move ahead with plans to partition Iraq and
seize Iraq's main oil reserves at Basra.

Second, a higher profile Iranian military role against the Iraqi resistance
will lead to additional Iranian casualties, to the political discomfort of
President Ahmadinejad. Increased Iranian casualties would be inevitable. At
the moment, Iran is sending military advisors into Iraq, many of which --
under the auspices of the Badr Brigade -- are commanding combat units in
Iraq's new police and military forces. Iran is reluctant to put these
personnel at risk, and would prefer to reserve them for attacks on the
Sunnis and Sadrists as US forces prepare to withdraw from Iraq.

Third, in the absence of additional US combat personnel in Baghdad, Iran
would face substantial new risks that Iran's own military forces could be
drawn across the border into Iraq to participate in the fighting against the
Sunni militants and Sadr. Iran's military capabilities to take up such a
role are limited, and are further constrained by existing Iranian
obligations to support Hamas and Hezbollah.

In short, for a variety of reasons, Iran will call upon the US to confront
Iraq's Sunni militants and Sadr in Baghdad, thus sparing Iran's own forces,
minimizing the potential for increased Iranian involvement in the Iraq
quagmire, and permitting Iran to move ahead with plans to partition Iraq and
seize its oil wealth at Basra. From Ahmadinejad's perspective, Iran's
interests are far better served when US forces do the fighting in Baghdad as
opposed to Iranian forces.

In this regard, President Bush's plan to surge US troops into Baghdad comes
as a Godsend for Ahmadinejad and his hard line allies. President Bush need
not worry about the success of his trip to Tehran. Bush is the answer to
Ahmadinejad's prayers for an Iranian-US strategic partnership; he will be
welcomed in Tehran with open arms.

Petroleumworld

 

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Petroleumworld News 01/04/07

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