Op-Ed Commentary

 

Our View : Chavez and Iran will lose

This week Chavez is nationalizing large sectors of Venezuela's economy and
asserting military influence in Bolivia. Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad is defying
the UN on nuclear issues and asserting military influence, via the US, in
Iraq.

Are Chavez and Ahmadinejad going too far? Will they lose by pursuing these
confrontational and expansionist policies? Yes, for the following reasons.

In a replay of the radical, anti-US phase of Castro's revolution in the
1960's, Hugo Chavez has announced he is taking over Venezuela's Central
Bank, Venezuela's telecommunications industry, and Venezuela's electricity
industry. In the same pro-Castro shift, Chavez is sending Venezuelan troops
to Bolivia to assist Evo Morales. Morales is under siege from six of nine
of Bolivia's provincial governors, who want their states to gain
independence from the Morales dictatorship, and who have a strong democratic
mandate in a 2006 election in this regard.

By taking these pro-Castro steps, Chavez is making three big mistakes.

First, Chavez is making a fool out of President Bush, who all along has been
a source of support for Chavez. Under President Bush, US policy on Chavez
was the same as in the Clinton years - i.e. a policy of "constructive
engagement." Bush defends Chavez from attacks by conservatives, who call
for economic sanctions against Chavez. Bush supports a US-Chavez "strategic
partnership" in Bolivia on behalf of Evo Morales. Bush encourages US
investment in Venezuela, as well as normal US-Venezuela military-to-military
relations, despite several Venezuelan provocations toward US military
personnel. Bush is even supplying spare parts and advanced technologies for
Venezuela's F-16s.

Second, Chavez is making a fool out of Latin America leaders, like President
Lula in Brazil, who defend Chavez. Lula is especially offended by Chavez's
power grab in Bolivia, by providing Venezuelan military support to Evo
Morales. Brazil has a high degree of dependence on Bolivia for natural gas
imports. Brazil is the largest foreign investor in Bolivia, especially in
the energy sector, which Morales has targeted for early nationalization, at
Brazil's expense. Lula will now be forced to defend Brazil's equities in
Bolivia against Morales, backed up by Chavez.

Third, Chavez's military support for Bolivia's President Evo Morales could
easily backfire. Morales is facing serious internal opposition, possibly a
civil war. Morales's control of Bolivia's military is uncertain.
Meanwhile, Bolivia's eastern states, which have enormous reserves of natural
gas, are contemplating independence from Bolivia and political association
with the neighboring states including Brazil. At the end of the day,
Bolivia's military could swing against Morales and with the eastern states
and Brazil.

In fact, Chavez's support for Morales could actually weaken Morales and
promote independence for Bolivia's eastern states by calling into question
his nationalist credentials. Public opinion polls show that by large
margins most Bolivians do not want Venezuela and Chavez to dominate their
country. Anti-Chavez, anti-Castro feelings are especially strong in
Bolivia's military.

Just as Chavez could lose in Bolivia, Iran is could lose in Iraq. Iran's
strategy in Iraq is to encourage the US fight to Muqtada al-Sadr and the
Sunnis, while Iran gains political influence. In fact, Iran has developed a
"strategic partnership" with the US in Iraq, similar to the US-Chavez bond
in Bolivia. As an example, Iran now supports President Bush's surge policy
in Baghdad. Moreover, a large number of Iranian officers on active duty are
now serving in the Iraqi army and are commanding forces, in cooperation with
the US, that are confronting Sadr and the Sunnis.

Unfortunately for Iran, most Iraqis value their independence and will resist
Iranian neo-colonialism, just as most Bolivians will resist Chavez. To take
control in Baghdad, Iran will have to fight with its own troops, especially
as US forces grow tired of serving as Iran's foreign legion and pull out of
Iraq.

To put it another way, Chavez will wind up supporting a minority and
undemocratic regime in Bolivia, dominated by Morales and his Inca
extremists. Meanwhile, Iran will be supporting a minority and undemocratic
regime in Iraq, dominated by pro-Iran extremists. President Bush can stay
with Chavez and Iran, as today, but would find himself in each instance as
aligned with the losing side in a civil war.

In short, Chavez and Iran are in serious error by alienating President Bush
and imposing military influence in Bolivia and Iraq. As with the
Rome-Berlin Axis of the 1930's, the Chavez-Ahmadinejad Axis is "going too
far" in empire building and in confronting the US. Again, Chavez and Iran
are making a fool out of President Bush, who - like President Roosevelt
before him -- will be compelled to respond, beginning in Bolivia and Iraq.

Petroleumworld

 

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Petroleumworld News 01/11/07

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