Bolivia

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Op-Ed Commentary

 

 

PW View :
Putin: Don't Arm Chavez!

 

Russia should not provide weapons to Chavez because to do so is immoral,
dangerous for Russia's own commercial interests in the region, and stupid
because Russia may never be paid and because Chavez is on the losing side in
South America.

Chavez is now asking Russia to provide a total of nine advanced submarines
to Venezuela. The submarines are in addition to Russian sales of advanced
fighter aircraft to Chavez as well as the capability to manufacture a very
large number of AK-47s that far exceed the requirements of the Venezuelan
military.

Yes, we all know Russia can point to similar US weapons sales to the nations
of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics. We also know Russia
blames US policy for the breakup of the USSR. Finally, we know that
President Bush is appeasing Chavez and would not lift a finger to stop the
Russian arms sales. For Russia, the door to Venezuela is wide open.

However, when the issue is arms sales to Hugo Chavez and his Iranian
comrade, Ahmadinejad, Russia should step back. These two have formed an
axis that can be likened to the Rome-Berlin axis of the 1930's, one that is
aggressive, racist and expansionist. Russian weapons sales to either Iran
or Venezuela are therefore immoral because Russia would be seen as feeding
the fire of a Nazi revival.

Second, Russian weapons sales to Chavez are adverse to Russian interests in
Latin America as a whole. Chavez is not going to sit on his weapons he is
going to use them, most likely against Brazil and Colombia, his neighbors.
Chavez's aggressive posture damages Russian interests because Russia does
more business with South American countries as a whole, especially
considering Brazil and Colombia, than in Russian weapons sales to Venezuela.
Such Russian business with South America could be placed at risk by
Chavez's aggressive posture in the region.

Third, Russia may never be paid by Chavez for these weapons, just as Russia
was not paid by Cuba, VietNam, Syria, and others too numerous to mention.

Fourth, Russia's sales of weapons to Chavez make Russia look stupid because
Chavez and Ahmadinejad - like their Nazi forbearers - are going to lose in
South America. Not a single Latin American state, with the exception of
Cuba and Bolivia, which are paid by Chavez to be allies, wants to see Chavez
and Ahmadinejad prevail. In fact, Chavez will not prevail given the
potential size and strength of an anti-Chavez coalition. For Russia to sell
weapons to Chavez is to support a loser. Russia should be thinking of the
regional winners -- Brazil, Colombia, and Chile. These three countries,
which will have support from other states, will stop Chavez and for that
reason alone are deserving of Russian support.

In conclusion, all these Russian equities in not being linked to Chavez
converge in the Andean states, which are under siege from Chavez. In the
case of Bolivia it will not be Russia's sales of submarines or fighter
aircraft to Chavez that will put Russia in the hot seat, but of the lowly
AK-47 assault rifle. It is only a matter of time until large numbers of
these Venezuelan-manufactured AK-47s begin turning up in Bolivia, Peru,
Ecuador, Colombia and Brazil, carried by the FARC, Chavez's close ally.
Surely, Russia does not want to be in this picture?



Petroleumworld



 

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Petroleumworld News 03/07/07

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