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Editorial Commentary
Scott Sullivan : Iran Faces Isolation
The wolves are closing in on Iran's radical leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei, President Ahmadinejad, former President Rafsanjani, and Iran's Black shirts known as the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Iran is being harassed across the board by a broad coalition of states and political leaders.
The proximate cause of Iran's international decline is Iran's failure in Iraq. Iran has failed to take Basra -- a key strategic city in southern Iraq -- as the UK withdraws. The UK is turning over power in Basra to Prime Minister Maliki and Muqtada al-Sadr, not to Iran. Without control of Basra, Iran will be restricted to a minor role in Iraq. Moreover, the loss of Basra and its oil reserves would cripple Iran's economy, making Iran much more vulnerable to international sanctions.Meanwhile, Iran's international opponents are stepping up the pressure against Tehran. First, France has decisively broken with Germany and its pro-Iran policies. Yesterday's Tehran Times carried a story that Germany is now angry about France's new anti-Iran policy. Chancellor Merkel now refers to French Prsident Sarkozy as Rambo!
Second, the US administration of George W. Bush -- which as been consistently pro-Iran -- is now on the way out. Whoever is elected US president is likely to be far less sympathetic to Iran. Furthermore, Bush could toughen his own policies against Iran. This means the US, the UK, and France are now aligning against Iran.
Third, the Arab states have been provided with their first real opportunity to gain ground against Iran in Iraq. This opportunity has been created by Bill Richardson's proposal to create a new Muslim peacekeeping forces under UN command. Such a pro-Arab UN force would be insulting to Iran from a diplomatic standpoint. Iran detests the UN.
Moreover, such a pro-Arab approach would embolden the anti-Iran Iraqi patriots like Muqtada al-Sadr. Finally. a pro-Arab UN force would be based in Bahrain and UAE, as per Richardson's suggestion, which are resisting Iranian-sponsored takeover attempts in their own countries. Richardson's proposal would force Iran to back away from Bahrain and the UAE.Finally, Iran's isolation is increasing due to Argentinian President Kirchner's repeated efforts to hold the Iranian regime and and former president Rafsanjani accountable for the deaths of dozens of Argentinews during a Hezbollah terrorist campaign in Buenos Aires during rhe 1980's. Iran is panicked by Kirchner's investigation and has refused to cooperate with Kirchner, the UN, and INTERPOL.
In short, with Iran facing international isolation, the future is bright for Iraq and increasingly bleak for Iran. When the history of this era is written, Ahmadinejad's decline will be seen to have begun with Iran's defeat in Basra, thanks to the UK and Muqatada al- Sadr.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.Editor's note: All comments posted and published on Petroleumworld, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of Petroleumworld. All comments expressed are private comments and do not necessary reflect the view of this website. All comments are posted and published without liability to Petroleumworld.
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Petroleumworld News 10/09/07
Copyright© 2007 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.
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