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Editorial Commentary
Scott Sullivan:
Erdogan-Bush plan in Iraq
President Bush is the first to admit that US gains in brokering a unified Sunni Front against Al-Qaeda in Anbar Province represent the first indication that a US victory is possible in Iraq. However, what President Bush fails to see is that his partnership in Iraq with the PKK/Barzani and with Iran is destroying Bush’s outreach to the Sunnis of Anbar Province.To be specific, if Bush follows through on his intention to hand over the Iraqi cities of Kirkuk to the PKK/Barzani and Basra to Iran, Bush’s relationship with the Anbar province Sunnis will go up in smoke. Al Qaeda will return to Anbar Province, chaos will reemerge, and the US Congress will insist upon early withdrawal of US troops. Defeat for Bush.
In contrast, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan can help Bush. What Erdogan can do is present a plan to preserve Kirkuk and Basra along with their vast oil reserves as Iraqi territory, forever.
PM Erdogan’s Plan would be welcomed by the vast majority of Al-Anbar’s Sunnis. Erdogan’s plan also be welcomed by Muqtada al-Sadr’s Shiites as well as Iraqi Christians and secularists. In other words, Erdogan’s plan would be accepted bythe vast majority of Iraqis, excluding Iraq’s pro-Iran Shiite factions and the militant Kurdish separatists.
Again, PM Erdogan's plan is as follows. Erdogan would suggest that President Bush push the PKK from northern Iraq; cancel the Hunt Oil Company energy exploration agreement with Kurdish president Barzani; cancel the US-proposed 2007 referendum on Kirkuk that would partition Iraq by turning over Kirkuk and its oil to the Kurds; cancel the US plan to partition Iraq by turning over Basra to Iran; and cancel the US plan to promote Iraq-Iran relations at Turkey's expense. See theconservativevoice.com on 1 November for more details.
Finally, PM Erdogan’s plan would contain an agreement for a three way split of Kirkuk’s oil reserves between the Iraqi Kurds, the Baghdad government, and Turkey. Erdogan would use his share largely for investment in Turkey’s Kurdish districts.
In short, in his 5 November meeting with President Bush, Turkish PM Erdogan should step forward as President Bush’s partner in Iraq. An Erdogan-Bush partnership is best for Turkey and for the US, as well as for the Iraqis. As for Iran and the pro-separatist Kurds, they can climb aboard the US-Turkish freedom train, or be left behind, as they wish.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 11/05/07
Copyright© 2007 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.
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