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Editorial Commentary
Scott Sullivan:
Barzani and Morales imitate Che Guevara
Che Guevara lives! In fact, the world now has two of him. Massoud Barzani is the Che Guevara of the Middle East. Evo Morales is the Che Guevara of South America. If history is a guide, Guevara's fate of early defeat and death will the fate of Barzani and Morales as well.
Like Che gambled on a quick success in 1968 Bolivia, Massoud Barzani and Evo Morales are gambling on quick success-- Barzani against Turkey, and Morales against his domestic democratic opponents. Barzani is gambling that Turkey will retreat from removing the PKK from northern Iraq. Morales is gambling that Bolivia's democrats will accept his decision to dissolve Bolivia's Senate, now in the hands of his democratic opponents.
Barzani and Morales, like Guevara before them, have placed the wrong bet. They will lose because they are both ultra-leftists, Che Guevara types, who are carried away by revolutionary fantasy. Barzani and Evo Morales are making the same fatal mistakes made by Guevara in 1968 Bolivia.
First, Barzani and Morales significantly underestimate the resolve and capabilities of their opponents. Turkey's military forces and Bolivia's democrats will not give way without a serious fight.
Second, Barzani and Morales underestimate the ability and willingness of the local allies of Turkey and Bolivia to mount a rescue effort on their behalf. Turkey's local allies consist of the Arab states, while the local allies of Bolivia's democrats consist of Brazil, Chile and Argentina. These countries strongly oppose seeing Barzani and the Kurds dominate the Middle East or Morales and the Inca dominate South America. These local allies will provide substantial assistance to Turkey and to Bolivia's democrats, including troops if necessary.
Third, Barzani and Morales lack significant international support. It is true Barzani has Ahmadinejad, and Evo Morales has Hugo Chavez. However, Ahmadinejad and Chavez do not bring additional allies, especially from the European states, Russia or China. Moreover, Ahmadinejad and Chavez are unlikely to offer military support to Barzani or Morales.
Fourth, like Guevara, Barzani and Morales are trying to turn marginalized ethnic groups -- the Kurdish and the Inca tribes, into a revolutionary vanguard. These tribbes do no constitute a modern nation state, much less a cohesive revolutionary vanguard. The Kurds will have no followers in the Middle East, and the Inca tribes will have no followers in South America.
In contrast, compare Barzani and Morales with Stalin, who was a successful international revolutionary. Stalin never underestimated his opponents, always took the regional balance of power into account, and never made a big international move without significant allies. Moreover, Stalin -- who was from a marginalized state picked Russia as his platforn. Stalin would have contempt for Barzani and Morales.
In short, Barzani and Morales -- like Che Guevara of 1968 Bolivia -- are adventurers and ultra-leftists without allies who are marching forward to certain defeat. Che paid for his revolutionary fantasies about Bolivia and radicalizing the Incas with his life.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 11/16/07
Copyright© 2007 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.
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