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Editorial Commentary
Scott Sullivan:
Turkey must escalate in Northern Iraq
Turkey faces humiliation at PKK hands in northern Iraq unless Turkey immediately escalates against the Kurds. A Turkish failure to escalate against the Kurds due to US restraints would inflict a catastrophic defeat on the Turkish Armed forces, turn the PKK-Peshmerga into the dominant fighting force in Iraq, and precipitate the immediate breakup of both Iraq and Turkey.
The official State Department version of recent events in northern Iraq is that Turkey is winning and the PKK is losing. This is untrue. Turkey is losing, and losing badly, while the PKK is in sight of a major political and military breakthrough, despite the fact that the PKK is doing almost no fighting whatsoever.
State’s version of Northern Iraq reality is that Turkey has already achieved its war aims in northern Iraq. Turkey has forced the PKK to withdraw into small pockets which Turkey can attack from the air at will. The PKK forces captured in these pockets pose no threat to Turkey.
Moreover, in deference to Turkish policy, the Kurdish regional Government has agreed to postpone for a few months the long anticipated referendum on Kirkuk. What more could Turkey ask for?
First, the Turkish military gains will last only until next Spring. When the snow melts, the PKK will be back in business as usual as in previous years. Unlike previous years, however, the PKK with justification will proclaim victory over the Turkish armed forces. The PKK will say that 2000 PKK insurgents turned back a Turkish force numbering over 100,000, armed with Turkey’s most advanced weapons. Moreover, the PKK will claim they won because of US restraints on Turkey, and that the US backs Barzani, Tlabani, and Ocalan over Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan.
Moreover, Turkey is facing defeat on the Kirkuk issue. Although it is true that Kurkuk’s referendum is being postponed, it is also true that the Kurdish government is annexing Kirkuk’s largest oilfields, some entirely outside the Kurdish zone, by signing contracts with foreign partners. Meanwhile, the US is not restraining the Kurds.
To avoid catastrophic defeat, Turkey must push for three options. First, Turkey should assert its claim to Mosul and send troops to Mosul, with or without US permission. The Kurds have armed forcesin Kirkuk. The Iranians have armed forces in Basra. Turkey is etitled to have armed forces im Mosul.
Second, Turkey should request that Turkey and the US create a joint force to protect the oilfields in northern Iraq from Kurdish annexation. The US-Turkish joint force will push the Kurdish peshmerga militia from Kirkuk's oilfields. The peshmerga presence in Kirkuk is providing security for Kurdish officials who are literally stealing Iraq's oil. Moreover, the US will announce via President Bush that all Kurdish oil contracts must first be approved in Baghdad. The US will consider apprehending and prosecuting Kurdish officials who are stealing Iraq's oil reserves. Finally, to demonstrate US resolve and fairness on Kurdish oil issues, President Bushs shall the Hut Oil Company to suspend its oil contracts with the Kurds until such contracts are reviewed and approved by Iraq's central government.
Third, Turkey will announce that it will, with Talabani’s permission, push most of the population in Northern Iraqi PKK zones into areas controlled by Talabani. The purpose of this policy is to put an end, once and for all, to the PKK safe haven in Northern Iraq.
Fourth, the US shall request that the Iraqi flag be displayed in all government buildings in Northern Iraq. If Kurdish compliance with this rule is not forthcoming, the US shall withdraw its troops from the Kurdish zone.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.Editor's note: All comments posted and published on Petroleumworld, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of Petroleumworld. All comments expressed are private comments and do not necessary reflect the view of this website. All comments are posted and published without liability to Petroleumworld.
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Petroleumworld News 12/21/07
Copyright© 2007 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.
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