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Editorial Commentary
Scott Sullivan: PW Editorial:
Putin must restrain Fidel Castro
With its choice of Vadimir Putin as man of the year, Time Magazine has boosted Putin’s prestige and dealt a significant blow to the Ahmadinejad-Chavez alliance against Russia.However, Russia still faces a significant threat from Iran. Given strong support from President Bush, Ahmadinejd’s Iran is well on the way to dominating the entire Middle East by way of dominating Iraq and Syria. In brief, Russia is out in the Middle East and Iran is in.
Meanwhile, Iran is pressuring Russia by way of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s key ally, Pakistani President Musharraf. Iran’s support for the Taliban and Musarraf is quite hostile to Russia and is a reversal of Iran’s previous policy of isolating the Taliban and Musharraf.
Finally, in a frequently overlooked hot spot for Russia, Iran is making a power play against Russia in Latin America. Supported by Iran, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in Bolivia, despite Russia’s anxieties about Iran, are well on the way to dominating South and Central America on behalf of Iran. In fact, Iran and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega are in negotiations about a strategic partnership in Latin America, a development that will greatly displease President Putin.
Moreover, Iran has been enhancing its terrorist capabilities in Latin America. When former Iranian president Rafsanjani was in power, he launched a program to use Hezbollah in Latin American terrorism via support from Iranian embassies and Iranian diplomats in Latin America. Under President Ahmadinejad, Iran is moving ahead to enhance Iran’s terrorist capabilities in Latin America.
The unpleasant reality for President Putin is that Iran is on the march in Latin America, Russia is the target, and many traditional Russian allies like Cuba are supporting Iran, not Russia. Putin must move quickly to prevent Iranian victories in Latin America.
In a surprising development, Putin may face a far greater challenge from Iran in South America and Central America than in the Middle East. This is because of the support for Russia in the Middle East from traditional Russian allies like Syria and the Sunni Arab states. Syria and the Sunni Arab states perceive a growing threat from Iran and are willing to cooperate with Russia against Iran.
In Latin America, by way of contrast, Russia’s traditional allies beginning with Cuba are a big part of Russia’s problems in the region because they support Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales, not Russia.
In short, Vladimir Putin is now in a strong international position. Putin’s prestige is increasing, thanks to Time Magazine. Meanwhile Putin can call on powerful allies like China for support in international affairs. All this is true. However, if Putin cannot find a way to rein in Fidel Castro in Latin America, Putin and Russia could be the biggest international losers of 2008, despite Time Magazine’s impressive award.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.Editor's note: All comments posted and published on Petroleumworld, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of Petroleumworld. All comments expressed are private comments and do not necessary reflect the view of this website. All comments are posted and published without liability to Petroleumworld.
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Petroleumworld News 12/28/07
Copyright© 2007 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.
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