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Editorial Commentary
VenEconomy: It takes two to fight…
Colombian-Venezuelan relations are experiencing their worst crisis since the Caldas affair in 1987.
Since December 2007, the Chávez administration has not lost a single opportunity to stir things up by offending the Uribe administration in every way possible.
One of the latest attacks was when, in the company of his pal, President Daniel Ortega, Chávez publicly accused Uribe of “cooking up” “an armed confrontation against Venezuela” with the United States. He then added to the confusion by giving the order to militarize the border, supposedly to put a stop to the smuggling of merchandise out of the country.
But it takes two to fight, and it looks as though the Colombian Government is not prepared to take up the gauntlet.
At the moment, the Colombian Government is concentrating on two basic issues: 1) successfully carrying out Plan Colombia to put an end to the attacks of the FARC, the ELN and other Colombian narcoterrorist groups; and 2) the signing of the Free Trade Agreement with the United States. In both cases, it needs public opinion to be in its favor. And Uribe has made progress in that direction.
On his last trip, Uribe managed to get the support of the European Union, France, Switzerland, and Spain for his crusade against narcoterrorism. And during the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Condolezza Rice, he apparently obtained assurances that Colombia has the support of the United States regardless of party differences.
It is clear that the Uribe administration will not break off relations with Caracas, unless Chávez does something hair-brained. The Colombian Government wants to preserve relations, ease tensions, and put the incident behind it. Besides it feels, like any good statesman and rightly so, that it is in the interests of both countries to seek areas of consensus.
Chávez, however, has shown no signs of wanting to let things be.
For many, one logical explanation of this bellicose unreasonableness of Chávez’s would that he is using it as a tactic to drum up support and distract the attention of people at home from the numerous economic and social problems that his mistaken public policies have created. Another reason for seeking a confrontation with Colombia could be the terrible consequences for the Venezuelan Government when the facts of the Briefcase Affair become known, which will open a Pandora’s Box of corruption and Hugo Chávez’ interference in the internal affairs of other governments in the region.
Before doing anything further to escalate the conflict with Colombia, Chávez should bear in mind that Venezuela would come out the loser in such a confrontation, both militarily and in terms of trade and energy. It is also worth remembering the Falklands War and the consequences it had for General Leopoldo Galtieri’s Government in Argentina.
VenEconomy is a Venezuela's leading specialized publisher in the economic and financial area. VenEconomy's Points of View on the issues of the day, as seen by VenEconomy during the last week. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.
This commentary was originally published by VenEconomy, on 01/28/2007. Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 01/30/08
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