Editorial
Commentary
Gustavo
Coronel: State
oil ownership in Latin America:
The dilemma of the starving monkey.
In the tropical forests of Venezuela there is a monkey who, when hungry,
sticks his hand into a nut to get to its kernel. When he tries to get the
kernel out, however, his fist and the kernel are too bulky. It is said
that he starves to death trying to get his hand out but he does not drop
the kernel. I am not a zoologist and, therefore, cannot say if this is
true or no.
Being a geologist I can say that I have seen similar things happening in several
of the oil industries of Latin America: in Venezuela, during the early stages
of the Brazil oil industry, in Mexico, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru and Argentina,
among other countries.
Latin American governments, even those labeled as conservatives, have always
identified the state with the good guys and the private sector, especially
the foreign private sector, with the bad guys. It does not matter that state-owned
companies or state agencies have proven to be, almost invariably, inept and
corrupt. Governments and many of the people in our countries feel in their
guts that the State will protect national resources better than the private
sector. This irrational, visceral belief reminds me of a time in which I, still
an adolescent, took a driving test to apply for my driver’s license.
I did almost everything wrong: did not check the position of the mirrors, did
not signal when taking turns, used the brakes in an irregular fashion. The
instructor carefully noted all of this in the form. Surprisingly, at the bottom
line, where the final question was: Is this person fit to drive? , he wrote
a big YES. In the same style, Latin Americans keep almost a religious faith
in the goodness of state-owned enterprises, against all evidence to the contrary.
In the case of the oil industry, for example, many feel that the only way the
oil can be “ours” is through state ownership of the companies exploiting
the resource. The massive evidence that has proven this wrong does not make
a dent in the unmovable belief of the people. As the industries deteriorate,
as the state-owned companies show clear signs of corruption, inefficiency and
under-investment, the cry continues to be: “The oil is ours!” It
is almost the same cry of the starving monkey: “This kernel is mine!”
Dogmatism is leading down the drain several of the oil industries in Latin
America. Take the Venezuelan oil industry, in the hands of Petroleos de Venezuela,
PDVSA. Today, in spite of record high world oil prices, PDVSA posted a net
income in 2007 that was 68.5% lower than in the preceding year (Total National
Take would be a better indicator if we knew where this money is going). Net
revenue was 16% lower than in 2006. Exploration expenditures were significantly
lower than the levels required to maintain reserves at the same level. Social
expenditures increased almost 8%, to some $16 billion. While the Venezuelan
government keeps insisting that production is of around 2.8 million barrels
per day, Venezuelan, as well as international observers, place the production
level at some 2.4 million barrels per day. The company is increasing its debt
very rapidly, now close to $20 billion, mostly due to the capture of its operational
income by the government. According to a ranking by Management&Excellence,
a firm specializing in the analysis of energy companies, PDVSA had the lowest
ranking in a group of international oil companies, only half as efficient as
the company next to last.
The Bolivian oil and gas company, YPFB, is another case in point. Every time
the Bolivian hydrocarbons industry is opened to the participation of the private
sector reserves increase and the industry gets a shot in the arm. Every time
nationalism is reasserted and YPFB comes again into existence, the industry
starts declining. Today, in less than two years, the company has had five presidents
and is asking money from the government, instead of giving money to the government.
A dramatic example is that of PEMEX, the Mexican state-owned petroleum company.
Ever since Lazaro Cardenas put the oil in the exclusive hands of the State,
PEMEX has been a nest of inefficiency and corruption. There was a time in which
job placement required a payment by the chosen employee, to be given to La
Quina, the boss of the Labor Union. PEMEX became the symbol of the Mexican
revolution. For many years PEMEX was used by the government as a vehicle for
indebtness, a system being imitated now by the Venezuelan government. The Mexican
company is still partly dominated by the Labor Union and no private participation
is allowed, except in some fringe activities, not related to the core business.
Today PEMEX is a highly deteriorated company and Mexico is already importing
40% of its gasoline requirements. The cries of help by the management of the
company have been met with outrage by the political opposition led by Lopez
Obrador. The problem is that PEMEX, like the starving monkey, has the kernel
in its grip but cannot take it out. The deeper offshore oil and gas prospects
that could exist in the Gulf of Mexico lie beyond the financial and technical
capability of the company. A recent plea by the management of the company calls
for more technological and operational support, for more autonomy to take decisions
involving strategies of operation, for a more transparent, less corrupt utilization
of the oil sector revenues, for a way to increase reserves in order to eliminate
imports. PEMEX management claims that true sovereignty means to be self sufficient,
rather than insisting in going at it alone. Lopez Obrador has met this plea
by management with accusations of “treason” against the revolution.
The Labor Union has been more “understanding, promising not to pressure
PEMEX to “build the seven new children schools, the two clinics and the
hospital of Paraiso, in Tabasco” that are overdue. Very generous, indeed.
The case of PETROBRAS is extremely revealing. Here is a state-owned company
that flew over the cuckoo’s nest. 40 years ago or so it was in the same
boat as the ones above mentioned are today. The prevailing chant of the Brazilian
patriots was: “The oil is ours”. Oil reserves were scant, the company
was politicized, and the monkey was starving. However, someone saw the light.
The company was partly privatized, through the placing of shares in the open
financial markets. Management became more professional, private ownership served
as a welcome source of capital and as a check on performance. Today, PETROBRAS
is probably the best managed state-owned oil company in the world, reserves
are way up there and Brazil is practically self-sufficient in energy.
The case of the starving monkey is not limited to Latin America. It can also
apply to, among others, PERTAMINA in Indonesia, to the Iranian petroleum company
and, until not too long ago, to ENI, the Italian company.
George Bernard Shaw used to say “a second marriage is a triumph of hope
over experience”. The manner in which Latin American governments and
much of public opinion in our countries have dealt with the ownership of our
natural resources is one of “hope over experience”, an example
of how ideological stupidity can smother rational ways to use national resources
efficiently, for the true benefit of our peoples.
Gustavo
Coronel is a 28 years oil industry veteran, a member of the first
board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), author
of several books. At the present Coronel is Petroleumworld associate editor
and advisor on the opinion and editorial content of the site. Petroleumworld
does not necessarily share these views.
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News 03/25/08
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