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Scott Sullivan :
Will Iran Wipe Israel from the Map?

This question is not academic. Countries have been wiped from the map. In
the late 20th century the USSR and Yugoslavia were wiped from the map, both
with Israeli-US encouragement. The Polish experience is even more relevant
for Israel. Poland has twice been wiped from the map -- the first time by
Russian-Hapsburg Empire machinations, and the second time by the
Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact of 1939.

In fact, the world owes Iran's president Ahmadinejad a huge vote of thanks
for dragging Adolph Hitler back into the discussion of contemporary issues.
This is because Israel is in the exact same position as Poland in 1939.
Poland in 1939 faced two powerful enemies in Germany and the USSR. The
Polish response was to steer clear of both and align with a group of far
away allies including France and the United Kingdom, as well as the Central
European states led by Czechoslovakia.

Today Israel faces powerful enemies in the form of Syria and Iran. Israel
today, like 1939 Poland, is trapped by the unyielding enmity of its
neighboring adversaries and the lack of local allies.

Moreover, just as the international community in 1939 was prepared to
sacrifice Czechoslovakia to Hitler via the Munich Agreement, which collapsed
Poland's hopes for a Central European alliance, the international community
today is prepared to sacrifice Lebanon - Israel's only hope for a local ally
- to Syria and Iran.

Furthermore, following the western betrayal of Czechoslovakia, a far more
severe and direct threat to Poland came in the form of the
Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact of 1939. The Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact literally
wiped Poland from the map by dividing it between the USSR and Germany. In
effect, Stalin was emulating Chamberlain's Munich Agreement that betrayed
Czechoslovakia with his own Munich agreement with Hitler that betrayed
Poland.

Today Israel is facing its own versions of the Munich Agreement and the
Ribbentrop-Molotov pact. As noted earlier the new Munich was the West's
betrayal of Lebanon. The new Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact today is the tactical
alliance between Assad's Syria and Ahmadinejad's Iran.

Syria and Iran are anything but natural allies. Syria is secular,
socialist, and essentially pan-Arab in outlook. Iran is theocratic,
Islamic, and Persian in outlook. Syria is essentially a status quo power.
Ass Assad likes to say, he has never advocated "wiping Israel from the map."
Iran, in contrast, is anti-status quo, revolutionary, messianic, and
expansionist. Syria wants to be left alone by Iran, whereas Iran wants a
change of regime in Damascus and the other Sunni states, and will bring this
about once Iran consolidates in Iraq.

In short, think of Assad as Stalin and Ahmadinejad as Hitler.

What was Poland's mistake in 1939, and will Israel make the same mistake
today? Poland's mistake was not to reach out to Stalin as an ally. Poland
lived in a fantasy land of rescue by France and the UK, who would not or
could not help Poland.

Today Israel lies in a fantasy land of rescue by the US. In reality, the US
is now part of the Iran-Syria Axis, as shown by President Bush's concept of
a US-Iran strategic partnership (see "Washington Signals Tehran," Haaretz,
26 September).

Even worse, the US is actually pro-Iran and anti-Syria. In other words, the
US favors Ahmadinejad, who wants to wipe Israel from the map, over Assad,
who does not. In line with this approach, the US sees Iran as a strategic
partner (as in Iraq) and Syria as an implacable adversary. On Secretary
Rice's current trip to the Middle East, she is more adamant on sanctions
against Syria than sanctions against Iran.

The choice for Israel is obvious -- make peace with Assad/Stalin, or be
wiped from the map by Ahmadinejad/Hitler, who will then turn against Syria
and the Sunni Arabs, as Hitler turned against Stalin. Israel can ask
Poland.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 10/05/06

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