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The presidential campaign of 2006 is not developing along the paths of predictable victories by Chávez, who has succeeded by hook or crook in 10 elections since 1998. If Chávez falls below 50% in the polls and Rosales appears to be within striking distance by November, the impact could be explosive in more ways than one. [Full disclosure: the writer is the author of “Getting Over Chávez and Poverty,” and has consulted with presidential candidates on message in the 2006 election campaign.

Officially, there are 23 candidates for president of Venezuela, but only two of them are relevant, Hugo Chávez, president since January 1999; and Zulia state Governor Manuel Rosales. Of the remainder, only one (Benjamín Rausseo) is a genuine independent. The 20 other names on the ballot are flak for Chávez – 15 of whom are directly associated with him – to “prove2 that democracy is alive and well in Venezuela. Voters already know it is a two-way race.

As of early September, the poll numbers put Chávez at 48% to 55% of voter intention and Rosales at 17% to 38% of voter intention. What looks like a walk in the park for Chávez is actually a path through a minefield of his own making. The electoral problems for Chávez are twofold: first, he has not delivered on his promises to his base vote in the barrios; and second, Rosales is not falling into the traps that the opposition fell for so easily in the past – he is a proposition candidate, not the opposition candidate.

In 1998, Chávez soared to election by 54% of the voters with promises to eliminate poverty and corruption, which had wracked Venezuela for decades. Chávez promised to share the oil wealth with the poor, and as a result most of them voted for him. In the time of his presidency, the oil barrel price has sextupled, state revenue has tripled, and state debt has quadrupled. But the needle in poverty hardly moved, unemployment plus underemployment add up to a majority of the working-age population, and concerns about insecurity went through the roof.

Chávez also wounded the goose the lays the golden eggs: PDVSA produces a bout 1.4 million barrels of oil daily and foreign oil companies another 1.1mbd for a total of 2.5mbd, less than half of its planned and programmed 5.5mbd. The much-touted Chávez missions for the poor, initiated in the run-up to the 2004 presidential recall referendum, are popular but ineffective among the poor, while being filled with bureaucratic corruption.

If the vociferous half of Venezuela did not exist, leaving Chávez with no external enemy to blame his failures on, he would be in deep political trouble in the barrios. As it is, the unshakable vote for Chávez is 27% according to Alfredo Keller, a professional survey researcher in Caracas. Chávez adds 25% to 35% more over the years with “soft” voters who want him to succeed or see no alternative to him on the scene. The Chávez strategy to attract the soft voters back into his column is to scare them about Mr. Danger of the Evil Empire, rich bankers, and the end of the missions. His difficulty here is that oil revenue comes from the Evil Empire and the banker’s money comes from Chávez, and no one is talking about getting rid of the missions for the poor – but doing more.

Rosales has introduced a debit card that will deliver 20% of the oil wealth to Venezuelan families, changing the IVA value-added tax, and providing a direct payment to unemployed Venezuelans. “After almost a century of oil operations, I ask you, have you received any benefits from the oil revenues?” Rosales asked in his opening statement. “Have you received something that has improved your quality of life? You haven’t received it, because it doesn’t exist, because there have been 100 years of squandering, corruption and waste.”

Reel this back eight years and recall that Chávez said the very same thing. Chávez is now the long-term incumbent looking for a presidency for life but saddled with scandals, corruption, billions in foreign spending, and seething poverty, unemployment, insecurity and housing crises. The family debit card that Rosales proposes has the oil wealth make an end run around the scavenging bureaucracy directly to the ATM – that is something the poor can understand and go for.

The old election paradigm of Chávez is obsolete. It is not credible for him to shape the election question as good versus bad, black versus white, powerless versus powerful, and poor versus rich. Chávez is about as rich and powerful as human beings can get, and the barrio voters know it. When Chávez says the enemy is the US and Rosales says the enemy is poverty, it is Rosales, and not Chávez, who will be resonating with the soft Chávez voters. As the vote starts to slip away, it gets harder and harder to bring it back on board – it’s like bailing out a boat with a hole in the hull.

And so a dynamic is likely to get underway in October that could wind up with a catastrophe in Venezuela. As Chávez finds his national number slipping to 48, 45, 42; and as the soft Chávez voters siphoning off to non-voters, undecided voters, or Rosales voters, the Chávez government will hit the panic button. The government does not do well under pressure, and the idea of losing the election – a forbidden thought, ideologically – will become explosively paranoiac. Huge mistakes will be made, but way worse than Mayor Barreto’s publication of his confiscations of country clubs.

What Chávez has to do in October and November is convince the soft Chávez voters that the threat from the outside is greater than their wanting 20% of the oil wealth on their Mi Negra debit card. To accomplish this trick he needs the US to help. If Chávez could get a threatened invasion of Venezuela or an assassination attempt against his life that could be blamed on George Bush, it would help him immensely with the soft Chávez voters. But if the US just goes silent – as it did on the embassy smuggling charge a few weeks ago – then Chávez is in deep trouble. He’s resourceful and asymmetrical and should not be underrated. But a call to David Copperfield is probably in order for some ideas.

As the uncertainty in the election outcome rises, an explosion becomes more predictable in Venezuela. It goes without saying that the revolution is not prepared to count the vote transparently, lose an election or transfer power to a democratic successor government. The election is there to provide the revolution with a mandate; the CNE is there to certify that mandate; and the police power of the state is there to insure that the revolution continues. The revolution’s dependence on democracy was absolute but one time only, in 1998. Since then, it is out to instruct people how to think, speak and act with revolutionary political correctness. No election can be allowed to turn that back, especially for the defenders of the revolution who now possess billions of dollars worth of the modern weapons of war. As Chávez has often said, he is preparing for war or at war with the enemies of the revolution. Whether his resolve to defend the revolution goes beyond Bolivar’s dictum never to fire upon the people of Venezuela remains to be seen.

Given the amount of money that has probably been stolen by people connected to government since 1998, uncertainty about the 2006 election outcome will cause fear, anxiety and violence. Seven years and $350 billion have gone by during the Chávez administration. There’s no telling what they might do to protect themselves from a resounding defeat. And there’s no sense speculating about it. All one can do at this point is watch what happens and hope for the best.

Michael Rowan's is an political analysts, author and media columnist (mrowan@cantv.net) - Read about Michael Rowan's book "Getting Over Chavez and Poverty" at michael.rowan.book@gmail.com. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

Editor's Note: This commentary was originally published special for Veneconomy, Oct. 11, 2006. Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 10/16/06

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