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The government has invited the EU, the OAS and the Carter Center to observe the presidential election, but what can they observe? Can they observe an independent analysis of the voting list to measure how many errors of fact it contains? Can they observe how many voters tried to vote twice but were prevented from doing so because of the fingerprint machines in previous elections and this one? Can they observe the count of paper ballots and independently compare it to the electronic count that is reported? Can they observe how the sample for the audit of the count is designed and suggest changes? Can they observe how the audit is conducted with their computer experts? If they can't observe these evidentiary matters, then why observe?

In the 2004 recall referendum, election observation was not effectively conducted by the OAS or the Carter Center, but they endorsed the government's 58/42% result anyway. An exit poll conducted by a New York polling firm found a result 34% different from the government count - unprecedented in its international experience. A statistical analysis performed by MIT and Harvard professors found the government count statistically unreliable. The government claimed that no proof of fraud existed, a tautological claim because only an independent ballot recount could prove suspected fraud. Will the foreign observers fall for this trick twice? Or will they insist on observing the election to detect its genuine electronic process?

As in 2004, the government has an obvious vested interest in the election outcome. When a government hides its election process from the voters, it raises suspicions that a trick is underway. Venezuela doesn't need Jimmy Carter to observe its election. It needs David Copperfield.

Michael Rowan's is an political analysts, author and media columnist (mrowan@cantv.net) - Read about Michael Rowan's book "Getting Over Chavez and Poverty" at michael.rowan.book@gmail.com. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

Editor's Note: This commentary was originally published special for Veneconomy, Oct. 24, 2006. Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 10/26/06

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