Op-Ed Commentary

 

 

Scott Sullivan :
Hadley recognizes Maliki-Sadr government

National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley's hurried visit to Baghdad is a
clear indication that the US-Iraq relationship has been turned upside down
in the past two weeks. At this point Hadley's visit signifies US awareness
of the following new realities Baghdad, Tehran, and Washington.

First, Hadley is now negotiating with the Maliki-Sadr government and no
longer, as in previous meetings, with the Malili/Hakim-SCIRI government. In
other words, Iran and the US overplayed their hand when they attempted to
enforce policies of partitioning Iraq and disarming the Mahdi Army. Each
objective by itself provoked serious resistance from the Iraqi people.
Taken together, they forced the Iraqi government to take drastic action in
defense of Iraqi sovereignty, and led Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki into an
unprecedented and successful confrontation with the US.

Second, Iran's plan to break up Iraq into three separate ethnic states, in
conjunction with SCIRI, Al Qaeda, and the Kurds, is now at a dead end. Iran
may still attempt to provoke civil war in Iraq on behalf of partition, in
cooperation especially with Al Qaeda, whose followers unsuccessfully
attempted to proclaim a Sunni Republic in Anbar Province last week, but this
goal is now forever beyond Tehran's reach.

Third, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki and Muqtada al-Sadr deserve great credit
for their resolute action in preserving stability in Iraq and throughout the
region. This new pro-Iraq, anti-partition policy is the first great success
of the new Iraqi government. Moreover, preserving Iraq's territorial
integrity was not only the primary task for the new government, it was the
hardest, facing stiff resistance from both Iran and the United States. All
other reconstruction tasks facing this new government, by comparison, are
far easier.

Fourth, Iraq's great success in fending off pro-partition pressures from
Iran represents a significant defeat - the first - for Ahmadinejad's
extremist, pro-Nazi government. Simply put, without the acquisition of
Iraq, Ahmadinejads's dreams of a new Persian empire will never become a
reality. To put it another way, the Middle East will escape the destiny of
becoming "Iran's Manchurian Empire" where Teheran would plunder and revise
borders at will. The good news is that Syria and Hezbollah will now be in a
position to make their own decisions on relations with Israel without
interference from the empire-builders in Tehran. As a result of this
colossal defeat, Ahmadinejad's tenure in office may be open to question for
the first time.

Fifth, Hadley's visit displays a lack of US confidence in Ambassador Zalmay
Khalilzad. Otherwise, why send Hadley? Khalilzad lost Washington's
confidence by departing from his role as an honest broker on policy issues
by promoting Iran's interests even over those of the US, to the extent of
calling Iraq's integrity as a state into question. Khalilzad, in a word,
went too far.

Sixth, and of greatest importance for the Bush Administration's fate
following the November 7 congressional elections, the US may still be able
to avoid a Bay of Pigs scenario in Iraq, i.e., the experience of seeing US
troops trapped in Baghdad while Iraq disintegrates into warring states and
full scale civil war emerges, including intervention by neighboring states.
This disaster scenario was desired by Iran, but the plan was never fulfilled
thanks to the pre-emptive strikes by Prime Minister Maliki and Muqtada
al-Sadr. The US and its military commanders owes these two leaders not
curses, but gratitude.

Finally, as this is being written, the International Herald Tribune today
(31 October), carries a story that as NSA Advisor Hadley arrived in Iraq,
Prime Minister Malaki, without seeking US authorization or even informing
the US in advance, ordered the Iraqi Army to lift the US-imposed blockade on
Sadr City which has been in place for several days. As the opening of this
assessment states, US-Iraqi relations have been turned upside down by the
Maliki-Sadr challenges to the US's pro-Iran policy; Iraq's pro-Iran faction
-- supported by Zalmay Khalilzad, Richard Perle, and Ahmed Chalabi -- has
been defeated; and it is time for the US to recognize the Maliki-Sadr
government.

 

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 11/01/06

Copyright©2006 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.

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