Op-Ed Commentary

 

 

Scott Sullivan :
US-Sadr partnership: The way ahead

As indicated by the visit of US National Security Advisor Hadley to Iraq,
the US has switched allegiance from Iran, Abdul Azziz al-Hakim, and Al Qaeda
-- all in favor of breaking Iraq into three states -- to Iraq and Muqtada
al Sadr, who favor preserving Ira's territorial integrity. This means the
US is also aligned with Syria and the Arab states. In this regard, it is a
welcome sign that Syria has just announced it will return its ambassador to
Baghdad.

However, the US must recognize that it has won the battle for Iraq but not
yet the war. Iran is not going to abandon its efforts to partition Iraq
just because the US seems to be, at long last, and belatedly, backing away
from its own partition proposal. Indeed, the concept of partitioning Iraq
has built tremendous momentum under the US-Iranian joint occupation. Iraq's
constitution, sponsored by the US and Iran, promotes an Iraqi breakup. So
does the most powerful political party in Iraq, the SCIRI, which has
disproportionate influence in the military and police forces, and will use
that position to promote civil war that would precipitate a break up of
Iraq.

Moreover, the US's current military plan for Iraq - which can be summarized
as abandon Iraq's warring provinces in favor of Baghdad -- sets the stage
for civil war and Iraqi partition. The redeployment of US forces from Sunni,
Shia and Kurdish areas to Baghdad will tempt Iraq's provinces to go their
own way and resort increasingly to unilateral action on sensitive issues
such as the status of Kirkuk and the allocation of oil revenues, to the
great disadvantage of Iraq's alienated and angry Sunni population.

Finally, as was evident in the weeks before Yugoslavia broke up in the
1990s, the impulse toward civil war and partition of a multi-ethnic state
can easily take on a life of its own as the fighting spreads from region to
region like a wildfire. Iraq could still follow the course of Yugoslavia,
regardless of US good intentions to preserve Iraqi territorial integrity.

The important point to remember is that strong US leadership is needed to
prevent Iraq from sliding into full scale civil war and partition. Stephen
Hadley's cooperation with the Maliki-Sadr government was a good step
forward, but much more needs to be done. Here is one possible action plan.

First, the US should find a replacement for Ambassador Khalilzad, who is the
primary proponent - along with Abdul Azziz al-Hakim -- of the Iraq partition
plan. As long as Khalilzad remains in Baghdad, doubts will persist as the
sincerity of the new US support for Maliki and Sadr. This state of affairs
is intolerable if the US has truly decided to drop its support for an Iraqi
confederacy.

Second, it is time to rethink General Casey's Baghdad-first security
strategy. If this is the strategy also favored by Iran, Hakim and the SCIRI,
then by definition it is a bad idea. Rethinking the Baghdad-first approach
should produce a security plan that would weaken the impulse for provincial
autonomy, especially for Shiastan and Basra; avoid turning Baghdad into the
main battleground; minimize US casualties from heavy combat in urban areas
like Baghdad; and better position US forces for a quick withdrawal from
Iraq, should this necessity arise.

Third, if Iran is not the US's preferred partner in Iraq, which seems to be
the new US strategy, then the US - on a fast track -- must find a way to
engage new partners like Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Sunni states.
Secretary Rice's efforts in this regard, it is certain, will be met with a
warm response.

Finally, and most importantly, the US and the Maliki-Sadr government must
immediately clarify the status of Basra and Kirkuk. To be specific, The US
and the Maliki-Sadr government must inform Iran that any attempt to annex
Basra will be seen as a hostile act that will bring an appropriate Iraqi
response. The Iraqi should send the same message on Kurdistan to the
Kurdish leadership (see "A US Victory Plan for Iraq," Iran-Watch.com.
10/24/06).

The above action plan will produce many benefits for Iraq, perhaps the
greatest of which will be the perception by Iraq's Sunnis that the era of
Iranian dominance in Iraq, which threatened the entire Sunni community with
ethnic cleansing as partition was imposed, is over. Under these conditions,
the reintegration of Sunnis into Iraq's political life should be possible, a
step that will terminate Iraq's civil war.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 11/02/06

Copyright©2006 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.

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