Op-Ed Commentary

 

 

Scott Sullivan :
Bush-Ahmadinejad coalition will backfire

 

Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker has another of his sensational "exposes"
about an imminent US military attack on Iran to destroy Iran's fledgling
nuclear capability (see "the Next Act," 27 November 06) Hersh's article
also alleges that the Pentagon is attempting to overthrow Iran's government
via covert support for Iran's Kurdish, Azeri and Baluchi separatists.
Finally, Hersh alleges that Robert Gates, who in his recent writings has
favored a US-Iran détente and US concessions to gain Iran's cooperation in
Iraq, is in reality secretly anti-Iran and is being brought on board to fool
Congress and the US public that the VP Cheney hard-liners have lost control
of the Iran policy.

My goodness, if anti-Iran "Cheney hardliners" are still in control of the
Bush administration, and are preparing to take imminent action, Iran should
be trembling in its boots, correct?

Far from trembling in its boots, Iran is acting as though the US no longer
exists. In Lebanon, Iran has unleashed Hezbollah to bring down the
democratic, pro-US government, eliciting only pro-forma protests from the
US. As far as Iran's nuclear program is concerned, Teheran's policy is full
speed ahead with Iran making no pretense whatsoever of further cooperation
with the UN.

Moreover, the US has encouraged Iran's obduracy by liberalizing US sanctions
in the strategic area of technological upgrades for Iran's Airbus fleet.
The US has readily granted Ahmadinejad and Khatami visas without political
preconditions to visit the US. Rumsfeld, who genuinely disliked
Adhmdinejad, is out, while the genuinely pro-Iran Gates is in. The
anti-Iran Republican House of Representatives is out, while the relatively
more pro-Iran Democrat-controlled House is in, with the pro-iran "dialogue"
(i.e. US concessions) Rep. Lantos in charge of the policy.

Best of all, it seems as though the pro-Iran James Baker gang, with full
Democratic Party support, has commandeered President Bush's stagecoach and
is holding him prisoner. At this point a skeptic would say that the Bush
administration seems eager to meet all of Iran's terms to get its 147,000
hostages back.

It is no surprise that Iran's fuehrer Ahmadinejad smiles all the time.

However, three hard-nosed countries will wipe that smile off Ahmadinejad's
face: Syria, Lebanon and Iraq (Israel has been co-opted into a pro-Iran
stance). Unlike Czechoslovakia in 1938, which did what it was told and
surrendered, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are resisting. More than that, they
will prevail over Iran.

This is because Iran has made three irretrievable mistakes. First, Iran wii
find it difficult to subdue Syria, Lebanon, or Iraq on separare terms, but
to subdue all three, and in the same time frame, is well beyond Iran's
reach. In this regard, today's press reports that Iraq's anti-Iran Shia
leader Muqtada Al-Sadr, who is pro-Syrian, has made several recent visits to
Damascas, including one lasting two weeks. Iran, watch out. Iraq's
resistance is getting organized.

Iran second big mistake is underestimating the Arab states that will defend
Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. In fact, Iran is crazy if it think the Sunni Arabs
will give way, like the UK and France in 1938. They cannot give way when a
coalition between them and Iran's intended victims would dominate the Middle
East. Iran, in contrast, will have no allies as it sets out to create a
Persian empire.

Iran's third big mistake is to choose the US as a partner. Not only is the
US a political liability for Iran, the US cannot be seen as a reliable
Iranian ally, especially in Iraq, where the US Congress, even under
Democratic Party control, will shrink back from turning over Basra and
southern Iraq to Iran.

This brings us back to the original question. Why is the Bush
administration leaking anti-Iran war fantasies to Seymour Hersh? That's
easy. Such fantasies constitute "red meat for the red states," and also
constitute a US gift to Ahmadinejad, who can use them to shore up support
for his Nazi regime.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 11/20/06

Copyright©2006 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved

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