Op-Ed Commentary
Gustavo
Coronel :
The fear factor and the AP/Ipsos poll:
A caveat for pollsters in Venezuela
On
Thanksgiving Day, The Associated Press working together with French
pollster Ipsos, released a poll related to the December 3rd presidential
election in Venezuela in which Hugo Chávez led candidate
Manuel Rosales by some 30 points. A Venezuelan analyst, Mrs. Maritza
Ramírez de Agena, called Ipsos' representative in Venezuela,
Mr. Jaime Seijas, to find more details about these curious results
and Mr. Seijas told her that the survey had been done in a random
manner, door-to-door, choosing every fifth house in a clockwise
manner. The mechanics of the survey, says Mrs. De Agena, look
fine but the social and political context in which the survey
was carried out might not have been taken into due consideration
by the French polling firm. In today's Venezuela, claims Mrs.
De Agena and other analysts of the Venezuelan presidential race,
the fear factor has to be taken into account. A Venezuelan opening
his or her door to a stranger taking a poll on the political preferences
of that person will either be inclined to refuse to answer (we
don't know how many did refuse) or to say what is safest. In our
country what is safest today is to say that, "yes, by all
means, I am planning to vote for Chávez." In a country
where the president publicly and systematically threatens citizens
with retaliation if they vote against him, where there are black
lists of Venezuelans who voted in the past against Chávez
being used to deny these citizens their right to a job or to an
identity document and where public employees have been told that
it's either the government's way or the highway, most Venezuelans
will think carefully about saying who they are going to vote for.
Specially to a stranger knocking at their door.
AP/Ipsos
is probably used to conducting polls where this atmosphere of
repression does not exist. This is why they went ahead and conducted
an open poll. The fear factor was totally ignored. I sincerely
believe that AP/Ipsos is headed for a loss of credibility after
the election takes place.
In
a recently published article, Mr. William Klemme makes the point
that other pollsters such as Penn, Schoen & Berland have conducted
polls in which the privacy of the person being polled is assured.
Such polls show dramatically different results. They show a tight
presidential race that can be defined as a technical tie, with
candidate Manuel Rosales having the momentum coming to the end
stage of the race and still gaining against the stagnant Chávez
candidacy.
Who
should we believe? Asks Klemme. I think that anyone living in
Venezuela or closely watching the current political situation
in the country from abroad would prefer to dismiss these and other
polls and rely on what they see, smell and hear in the country.
There is an air of euphoria in Venezuela, related to the candidacy
of Manuel Rosales, which contrasts strongly with the forced optimism
of the regime. In public events such as baseball games Rosales
is wildly acclaimed, while Chávez has decided not to attend
them, for fear of public rejection. For example, as I write this,
a giant rally in favor of Rosales is taking place in Caracas.
Chávez has forbidden overflights of Caracas (except for
government, military and police), so that no one will be able
to take photographs illustrating its magnitude. He has ordered
teams of laborers to conduct phantom repairs along the highways
leading to the site of the rally, in order to prevent people from
getting there. He is like a boxer kicking, spitting and biting
the opponent, throwing sand in his face, using all the dirty tricks
in the book and some which are not in the book, to prevent him
from winning. This gangster attitude strongly suggests that the
regime feels terrified of the results of the election. Chávez
controls four of the five members of the National Electoral Council
and for the last two years has been beefing up the electoral registry
with foreigners who will vote for him in exchange for quick nationalization.
Colombian narcoterrorists have been known to be registered and
have voted for Chávez in past elections. The company that
supplied the electronic voting machines, Smartmatic, received
a controversial contract from Chávez and has had a murky
history. It is currently being investigated in the U.S. The electoral
registry is deeply corrupted, having at one point in time over
39,000 voters more than 100 years old and 2,000 living at the
same address. Chávez utilizes the state-owned media at
his total discretion, while limiting the time of the opposition
candidate in private stations and barring him from using the state-owned
media that should be available, by law, to all citizens.
The
fear factor, if not taken into consideration, can lead to great
errors in polls and other electoral predictions on what is going
to take place on December 3rd in Venezuela. Let us wait and see.
If there is no transparency in the electoral process Venezuela
will erupt in violence or an open dictatorship will take over
the country that once was, not so long ago, a democratic model
for Latin America.
Gustavo
Coronel
is a 28 years oil industry veteran, a member of the first board
of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), author
of several books. At the present Coronel is Petroleumworld associate
editor and advisor on the opinion and editorial content of Petroleumworld.
Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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News 11/27/06
Copyright©2006
Gustavo Coronel. All rights reserved
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