Op-Ed Commentary

 

 

Our view :
Iran misfires on Lebanon and Iraq

In a potentially vast miscalculation, Iran has picked this week to carry out
simultaneous coup d'etats in Lebanon and Iraq. Iran's policy has misfired
on both. In Lebanon, Iran has erred by escalating without any clear
concept of how to bring the Lebanon coup d'etat to closure. In Iraq, Iran
has erred by attempting to force President Bush to capitulate to Iran's
demands for a change of the Baghdad govenment during Monday's meeting
between Bush and the pro-Iran leader of Iraq's Shias, Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim,
who wants to overthrow the anti-Iran government of Maliki and Sadr.

In Lebanon, Iran is in an untenable position. Iran cannot afford to
escalate, and it cannot afford to stand down. Mindful of Napoleon's dictum
"if you decide to take Vienna, take Vienna!," Iran and Hezbollah are aware
that to play at revolution, as they are doing today in Lebanon, is foolish
and dangerous.

At this point, standing down in Lebanon is not a viable option for Hezbollah
and Iran. They would be humiliated and disgraced.

Yet for Iran and Hezbollah to overthrow the Siniora government by force
would also be foolish and dangerous. They might fail to command widespread
support for such a reckless action, especially if blood is shed. Hezbollah
has widespread support when it is fighting the Israelis, but less so when it
is fighting fellow Lebanese. Under the first circumstance, Hezbollah
appears as the spearhead of the Lebanese resistance. Under the second,
Hezbollah appears as the spearhead of Iran, which has its own interests, not
necessarily those of Lebanon, at heart.

Second, in this context, the Arab states will be strongly opposed to a
Hezbollah coup d'etat in Lebanon (as they trongly oppose a Hakim coup e'tat
in Iraq) and would almost certainly take steps against Hezbollah and Iraq
and would demand the US do the same. Iran's long free ride, with US
support, would be over.

Third, what is even worse from the perspective of Hezbollah and Iran, two
leading Middle East states who do not fall into the Arab camp -- Iraq and
Syria -- could join the Arab camp in isolating Hezbollah and Iran.

Just as Hezbollah and Iran are on the spot in Lebanon, they have put
President Bush on the spot with his Monday meeting with Abdul Azziz
al-Hakim, the leader of the Iraqi Shia's pro-Iran faction. As noted
earlier, Iran and Hakim want President Bush to support their coup d'etat in
Iraq against the Maliki-Sadr government.

From President Bush's perspective, this option is unacceptable for three
reasons. First, US support for Iran's control in Iraq would be the least
persuasive rationale for keeping US troops in Iraq. Congress would object
and withdraw US forces in a humiliating defeat for US policy.

Second, endorsing Hakim's coup could play directly into Muqtada al-Sadr's
hands. Sadr could launch a popular uprising against Iran and the US, and
prevail.

Third, how can the US endorse Hakkim's coup in Iraq and not endorse
Hezbollah's coup in Lebanon? Debating the issue that Hakim's coup is more
constitutional is a useless exercise. Yet for the US to endorse coup
d'etats in Lebanon and Iraq puts the US on the side of Ahmadinejad and the
Nazis.

In sum, Iran faces two massive defeats this week. Hezbollah will back down
in Lebanon, and President Bush will stay the course in supporting the
Maliki-Sadr government. Iran will be at an impasse in Lebanon and Iraq,
with highly negative consequences for Ahmadinejad's regime. For Iran, such
setbacks in Lebanon and Iraq could mark the beginning of the end.

Petroleumworld

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Petroleumworld News 12/04/06

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