Op-Ed Commentary
VenEconomy:
Obstacles
on the path to hegemony
In 1998, President-elect Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías
called for national unity, criticized the concentration of power,
defended a Venezuela free of corruption and, what is more, gave
assurances that he would fight exclusion and social injustice.
Now in 2006, after being reelected as President, Hugo Chávez,
in his first speech from the “People’s Balcony,”
called for the advancement of the division in the country and
announced the radicalization of his 21st century-style socialist
model, so assigning the promises made in 1998 to oblivion.
If it is true that the path along which President Chávez
intends to take Venezuela is the advancement of his particular
brand of Bolivarian socialism, here are some of the things in
store for the country:
1) Greater government control of and interference in the economy.
In his speech, the head of state specifically referred to a “control
of earnings” and was particularly critical of the banks
on account of their allegedly excessive earnings, as though they
were not a direct consequence of the government’s present
fiscal and monetary policy.
2) A further dissolving of the private sector’s property
rights. The government would complete putting up the legal fence
around the private sector of the economy, in particular around
producers of goods. This could include nationalization of emblematic
companies such as CANTV and La Electricidad de Caracas.
3) Greater interference by the State in people’s everyday
lives, in particular in the area of education and civil rights;
and
4) The continued support (and control) of an enormous number of
Venezuelans through handouts funded by high levels of public spending.
The good news –if it can be called that- is that there will
be two major stumbling blocks on the path to the President-re-elect’s
hegemonic intentions that could prevent them from coming to much.
The first is the possible stabilization of or drop in oil prices,
because, despite the country’s considerable international
reserves, they would only be sufficient to keep up the government’s
high levels of populist spending for a few months. If oil revenues
were to drop and once the reserves had been depleted, the President
would loose popular support and that very same public opinion
would force him to moderate his radical position.
The second and most important stumbling block is that on December
3 a factor emerged that was not there six months ago: a new political
leadership represented by Manuel Rosales and Leopoldo López.
The ability of these leaders to mobilize, draw together, and provide
a structure for the more than four million Venezuelans who expressed
their outright rejection of the Bolivarian socialist project would
be the main obstacle on Chávez’ path to hegemony.
On them is pinned the hope of being able to continue in the fight
for democracy, to be decided by the vote, for a better country
with greater social equity for 26 million Venezuelans.
VenEconomy
is a Venezuela's leading specialized publisher in the economic
and financial area. VenEconomy's Points of View on the issues
of the day, as seen by VenEconomy during the last week. Petroleumworld
not necessarily share these views.
Editor's
Note: This commentary was originally published by VenEconomy,
on 12/05/2006. Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest
of our readers.
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Petroleumworld
12/07/06
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