Op-Ed Commentary

 

 

Our view :
Baker and Iran are losing

To read the US press on President Bush's travails, especially James Baker's
virtual takeover of the Executive Branch, is to gain a perception that US
hardliners have lost and that Iran is dominating the bilateral relationship.
This week's Time Magazine, for example, carries a story to the effect that
Iran's new "charm offensive," such as Iran's ready acceptance of the Baker
Plan, is sweeping all US resistance to US acceptance of Iran as its primary
strategic partner in the Middle East (see "Iran Reacts Favorably to the
Baker-Hamilton Plan" 9 December 06).

This perception of an emerging US-Iranian strategic partnership could not be
farther from the truth, despite the pro-Iran atmospherics created by James
Baker in Washington DC.

Skepticism on an Iran-US strategic partnership, by definition dominated by
Tehran, is in order for two principal reasons. First, Iran does not appear
to be serious in its desire for better relations with the US or the west in
general. The Persian Journal has just reported that a Holocaust Conference
will open this week that is sponsored by Iran's government and will be
attended by Iran's president. This is not a sign of progress in Iran.

Second, for Iran to dominate US-Iran relations, Iran must prevail with its
power plays in Iraq, Lebanon, and within the Bush Administration. The
reality is that Iran will fall well short of its goals in all three areas.

In Iraq, Iran is seeking to topple the Maliki-Sadr government and put
together a new government, under Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's SCIRI (favored by
Baker, Rice, and Gates) that would exclude Muqtada al-Sadr (see
International Herald Tribune, 10 December 06). An SCIRI government in Iraq
is not going to happen. Muqtada and his political party are too popular to
be excluded altogether from national politics. Moreover, Hakim would be
forced to rely on the Kurdish parties for this new government, which would
command only a narrow base in Iraqi politics and would exclude all the major
Sunni groups as well as al-Sadr. To put it another way, a SCIRI-Kurdish
government will have a short life in the event it is evr established, which
is against the odds. An SCIRI defeat in Iraq, as with a Hezbollah defeat in
Lebanon, would represent an acute embarrassment for Iran and would
substantially diminish Iran's diplomatic clout in the region and in
bilateral relations with the US.

In Lebanon, the Hezbollah party, backed by Iran, faces growing internal and
international resistance to its power grab. Most recently, Saudi Arabia and
China are putting markers down against Hezbollah unilateralism. This means
Hezbollah will have to learn the art of compromise with other parties if it,
along with its Iranian sponsors, is to remain a viable force in Lebanon's
politics.

In the US, James Baker is also falling short in his efforts to turn US
policy decisively in a pro-Iran direction by means of his report on Iraq.
For one thing, the report itself is confusing and fails to lay out a clear
course of US actions on relations with Iran. For another, most members of
Congress, while open to a dialogue with Iran, would oppose unilateral US
concessions to Iran, as Ahmadinejad is likely to demand as a down payment
for improved relations.

In short, Iran is overestimating its position in Iraq, Lebanon, and the US.
As a result, Iran is overestimating its ability to force concessions from
the US and US allies. Instead, Iran could soon find itself bogged down with
problems in both Iraq and Lebanon and vulnerable to pressure from the US.

Petroleumworld

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Petroleumworld News 12/10/06

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