Op-Ed Commentary

Gustavo Coronel: Will the real Bolivian
Vice President Álvaro García Linera please stand up?

Listening to Álvaro García Linera, Vice President of Bolivia, speak at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., one gets the impression that he is a highly idealistic person. Soft spoken, conceptually precise, he projects an air of balance that contrasts with the more emotional, aggressive posture of president Evo Morales.

The question is: who is the real García Linera? The Marxist mastermind of the extreme group Tupak Katari, led by the violent Francisco Quispe? Or the intellectual that has a vision of Bolivia as a nation that could become modern through the convergence of the small industry, the big industry and the agricultural sector? The answer to this question is important to determine what path Bolivia will follow in the short-term.

At the CSIS meeting García Linera gave a clear summary of his reasons for Morales's electoral victory and outlined the steps the new government has been taking. "A new political class has been born," he said. The new government will promote the expansion of civic rights and a redistribution of the economic surplus. In the old Bolivia bureaucratic positions were distributed among the political parties but the new government is emphasizing stability and meritocracy. Net economic growth in Bolivia has always been weak, less than one percent per year. Foreign investment has not been the answer to this weakness since it did not create jobs and was strongly concentrated in hydrocarbons, electricity, railroads and mining. Foreign companies simply replaced the role of the state. Social and economic inequality could not be answered by preceding governments and this failure led to the victory of Evo Morales. The Bolivian discourse has now changed from globalization and market economy to indigenous rights, nationalization and national sovereignty. García Linera spoke of the need for Bolivia to develop the heavy industry in parallel with the small artisan and family industry and the agricultural sector, a convergence of efforts he has called elsewhere "Andean capitalism." To accomplish this, he said, Bolivia needs not one friend but many friends, not handouts but partnerships. Bolivia is heading, he added, toward a multicultural, decentralized state, where austerity and transparency are fundamental.

García Linera listed the two main policy decisions taken by the new government, in fulfillment of the electoral promises made by Morales during his campaign: the nationalization of the hydrocarbons industry and convoking a National Constituent Assembly. He added that both decisions have been made keeping in mind the rights of the foreign companies and of the Bolivian political minorities, all of which will be represented in the Constituent Assembly.

When contrasting the discourse of García Linera with the decisions made by the new government is easy to detect an important gap. The nationalization of the hydrocarbon industry in Bolivia can hardly be the basis for a new Bolivia with multiple economic partners, one of the objectives listed by García Linera. On the contrary, the manner it was done, the violent and inconsiderate expressions of president Morales referring to foreign companies as enemies of the country and the return of management of the sector into the hands of Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB), the state hydrocarbons company, can only point to a rocky road ahead for this industry and for Bolivia. Bolivia has nationalized the hydrocarbons industry twice before. Each time the step was taken as a political move, in the name of national sovereignty. This time the reason was the same one. And yet, the nation was the winner when the hydrocarbons industry was essentially in the hands of the foreign companies. The foreign companies, as a result of their investments and technical efforts, added all of the significant gas reserves of Bolivia. In contrast, the performance of the hydrocarbons industry under the state company has always been poor or disastrous. YPFB has always been an inefficient and often corrupt company. There is no reason to believe that this will be different this time around. Although the nationalization of the hydrocarbons sector has been greatly supported by the population, euphoria might change to finger pointing when reality sets in.

The Constituent Assembly is another area of extreme danger for Bolivia. In this move the hand of Hugo Chávez is very evident. Chávez had great success in promoting a Constituent Assembly as a major electoral promise of his presidential campaign. Once victorious he used this body to dissolve the existing congress and eliminate all political checks and balances in the country becoming, in fact, a dictator. This was possibly the original plan for Bolivia. Although a legislative body with supra-constitutional powers is a real danger for any country, the Bolivian experiment is turning out slightly less dangerous than the Chávez monster, due to the weaker victory of Morales in the referendum to convoke the Bolivian Assembly and to the provisions agreed for the representation of minorities and the need of a two-thirds majority for decisions of that body to be valid.

The third area of inconsistency between the discourse of García Linera and Bolivian reality is the close alignment of Morales with Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro. Contrary to the expressions of distaste of García Linera for handouts and his request for economic partnerships, the truth is that so far Bolivia has either been essentially asking for handouts, from Chávez, the U.S. and the European Union or aggressively demanding more money for its gas from Brazil and Argentina. Morales adoration of Castro and Chávez cannot create friends in the U.S. and Europe. One of the main mistakes of Bolivian leaders is probably the use of a double discourse in a world so intensely media oriented. What Morales says in Buenos Aires and what García Linera says in Washington become immediately known and tested for consistency.

Although García Linera made a good impression at CSIS and projected the image of an idealistic and bright young Bolivian leader, his past political credentials, his association with extremist groups with possible terrorist ramifications and the early decisions of the government he represents might have left much of his audience unconvinced about the purity of his intentions to lead Bolivia to modernization.

July 23, 2006

Gustavo Coronel is a 28 years oil industry veteran, a member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), author of several books. At the present Coronel is Petroleumworld associate editor and advisor on the opinion and editorial content of Petroleumworld. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 12/12/06

Copyright© 2006 Gustavo Coronel. All rights reserved.

 

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