Op-Ed Commentary

Our View :
Iran's elections spell defeat in Middle East

Iran's elections do not change the outlook for Iranian imperialism in the
Middle East. Iran faces certain defeat. In fact, the first signs of Iran's
defeat are already evident. One sign is Iran's failure to bring its coup
d'etats to a successful conclusion via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the
Palestinian Authority (PA). Iran is also at risk of losing its leading
position in Iraq via support for the Badr Brigade and SCIRI. Muqtada
al-Sadr is now preparing to push SCIRI to the sidelines.

Iran's defeat is due to five major blunders by the Ahmadinejad-Khameneii
regime.

First, President Ahmadinejad erred by promoting the Nazi philosophy in a
high profile campaign. Ahmadinejad's campaign included repeated pro-Nazi,
pro-German statements as well as his decision to host the recent Holocaust
Conference. Such an Iranian orientation is embarrassing to states like
Russia and China who Iran needs as allies but cannot be identified with an
overtly pro-Nazi regime. Iran's elections do not change Iran's image.
Ahmadinejad could not have mounted his pro-Nazi campaign without prior
approval from Ayatollah Khamenei, both of which remain in power.

Second, Iran is escalating on too many fronts at once. At the moment,
Iran's policies are behind power plays by Hamas in the PA, Hezbollah in
Lebanon, and Hakim and the Badr Brigade (Iraq's Hezbollah) in Iraq. Such
simultaneous Iranian-inspired crises are backfiring on Iran by mobilizing
and unifying Iran's adversaries. In contrast, Hitler could teach
Ahmadinejad and Khamenei a lesson that the best way to conquer a region is
on a step by step basis, not in a massive single push. Iran's problem is
that the Ernst Roehm/SA "ultra" tradition dominates Iran's foreign policy,
despite the recent elections. Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are unlikely to step
back from a confrontational strategy.

Third, Iran, with typical SA arrogance, is underestimating Turkey as a
potential adversary. Whether or not Iran admits it, Iran's plan to
partition Iraq by carving out an independent Shiastan is based directly on
success by the Kurds in first carving out a separate Kurdistan. If no
Kurdistan exists, there can be no Shiastan. Kurdistan establishes a legal
precedent for Shiastan. By taking this road, Iran has become the prime ally
of Kurdistan and, by definition, the top adversary of Turkey. Unlike the
US, Turkey will not appease Iran/Kurdistan. Turkey can and will punish Iran
for its pro-Kurdistan policy, very likely by sending Turkish troops across
the border into Iraq, as Turkey has done before.

Fourth, Iran is also underestimating Russia which, like Turkey, is a
significant potential adversary. Russia, backed by China and Kazakhstan, has
already locked Iran out of Central Asia by denying Iran full membership in
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Central Asia's equivalent of NATO).
Now, worried by excesses by Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as US passivity,
Russia is increasingly being pushed into resolving Middle East problems that
are provoked by Iran. In fact, Syria's President Assad, a key player on
Lebanon, the PA, and Iraq, is in Moscow this week for meetings to discuss
Iran's threat to the region.. In short, Russia, like Turkey, is now on a
collision course with Iran.

Fifth, in addition to Iran's underestimation of the challenge from Turkey
and Russia, Iran is overestimating the support it will receive from Syria
and the US. Both Syria and the US are fair weather friends. As long as
Iran is seen as winning, Iran will have Syrian and US support. Once Turkey
and Russia begin to push back against Iran, however, Syria and the US will
be quick to abandon ship, just as Hitler lost his few allies in 1944
(Bulgaria and Hungary) as it became evident that Hitler had blundered by
invading the USSR.

In conclusion, Iran is already on a losing course in the Middle East.
Iran's elections do nothing to change this reality. Iran is overextended in
Iraq, Lebanon, and the PA. Moreover, Ahmadinejad and Khaminei lack the
patience and skills of a Hitler to take the Middle East on a step by step
basis (an ideal Iranian strategy would be to consolidate first in Iraq
before taking Lebanon and the PA). Instead, the SA/Ernst Roehm tradition of
confrontation with all is triumphant in Iran's foreign policy. As long as
this is the case, Iran is going down.

Petroleumworld

 

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Petroleumworld News 12/20/06

Copyright© 2006 Petroleumworld. All rights reserved.

 

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