Op-Ed Commentary

 

Our View :
Iran predictions in 2007

Iran will be the world's leading aggressor state throughout 2007. Iran's
primary target will be southern Iraq and its oil wealth at Basra. Iran has
already prepared the way for Basra's annexation via an alliance with SCIRI
leader Abdul Azia al-Hakim and Iraq's president Jamal Talabani. Iran needs
Talabani because Kurdistan's independence from Iraq is a precondition for
southern Iraq's independence from Baghdad and Iran's own annexation of
Basra. Iran must have Basra because of future energy shortages in Iran. A
John Hopkins energy assessment, just released, indicates that a steep and
irreversible near term decline in Iran's own oil production (50 per cent
decline in five years) is underway.

As in 2006, the US will be Iran's Junior Partner. In 2006, US policy opened
the path to Iranian influence in the Palestinian Authority via Hamas; in
Lebanon via Hezbollah; and in Iraq via the SCIRI and the Badr Brigade. In
fact, State is proud of the US role in all three revolutions as the key to
State's Democratic Transformation of the Middle East. Although the US
military has taken action against Iran's anti-US actions in Iraq this week,
by apprehending several Iranian officials who were allegedly involved in
planning terrorist attacks against US forces in Iraq, State's favorable
attitude toward Iran and Hakim is unlikely to change, Hakim has been and
will continue to be State's favored political leader in Iraq.

In this context, Muqtada al-Sadr, now the most powerful political leader in
Iraq, will continue to lead Iraq's opposition to Iran. Sadr, unlike Hakim,
is opposed to Basra's independence. Sadr's power base is in Baghdad, not
southern Iraq and Basra. Iraq's loss of Basra would leave Baghdad's
Shi'ites and Sadr isolated and vulnerable. The result would be a coup for
Iran and Hakim and a disaster for Sadr and his allies.

While Sadr will be leading Iraq's domestic resistance to Iran, Russia will
lead the international resistance to Iran. Russia is already blocking
Russia's access to Central Asia via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Russia is also blocking Iran's influence in Turkmenistan, where a political
transition s underway and Iran is attempting to make inroads. Moreover,
Russia is also concerned about rising Iranian influence in the Middle East
via Hezbollah and Hamas. Russia is now cooperating with Syria to moderate
Hezbollah, and appears to be having success with Hezbollah's call this week
for a negotiated settlement to Lebanon's problems. Hamas, however, is
unlikely to moderate its extremist policy. Iran has just announced it will
for the first time be providing military training to Hamas within Iran.

Turkey will be Russia's top partner in a Contain Iran policy. This is
because Turkey regards the breakup of Iraq into two or more states including
Kurdistan as presenting an unacceptable threat to Turkey. Prime Minister
Erdogan will mobilize Turkey's own forces against Iran and Kurdistan.
Turkey will also mobilize the Arab states including Jordan and Syria.

Next to the US, Al-Qaeda will be Iran's most important ally. This is
because Al Qaeda, like Iran, wants Iraq to break up into two or more states.
From Al Qaeda's perspective, an independent Kurdistan and (Shia) Basra
will be followed by an independent Sunnistan in Al Anbar province, bordering
Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda intends to dominate this new Sunni state, which
would replace Afghanistan as a staging area for terrorism. Moreover, with
control of Al Abar province Al Qaeda would be well positioned to influence
Saudi Arabia and influence developments in the Middle East as a whole, to
Iran's benefit.

Finally, who will Time Magazine chose as Man of the Year in 2007? That's
easy - Muqtada al-Sadr. All roads in the Middle East now lead to Sadr,
Assad, and Putin.

 

Petroleumworld

 

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Petroleumworld News 12/27/06

Copyright© 2006 Petroleumworld. All rights reserved.

 

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