Op-Ed Commentary

 

Our View :
Iraq's two governments: Hakim versus Sadr

Iraq's slide into civil war is due to Iran's steady pressure on Baghdad to
make significant concessions to Tehran in the areas of territorial integrity
(Iraq's partition into three states); national security (acceptance of Badr
Corp command in the military); and economics (Iraq's energy concessions to
Iran). Iraq's patriotic resistance, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, and accompanied
by the Sunni resistance, is pushing back against these Iranian demands.

In true colonial fashion, Iran has even carved out its own Iraqi shadow
government at the national level to displace the elected government of Prime
Minister Maliki, supported by Sadr.

Iran's captive government is led by Iraq's president Jamal Talabani and
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who commands the pro-Iran SCIRI party (Supreme Council
for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), as well as thre pro-Iran militia called
the Badr Brigade, which has infiltrated the upper echelons of Baghdad's army
and police.

Iran's captive Talabani-Hakim government has received crucially important
support from the US. Talabani and Hakim have both established close
collaborative relations with US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. They have all
agreed on the central issue of incorporating provisions in favor of an
independent Kurdistan and Shiastan (whose capital is at Basra), each with
its own militia, into Iraq's new constitution. Moreover, Talabani and Hakim
have both had meetings with President Bush.

In addition, Iran's captive Talabani-Hakim government has signed extensive
and largely secret agreements with Iran on military cooperation and border
control with Iran. The Iraqi confusion on the nature of military
cooperation agreements was evident this week when US forces apprehended
several Iranians including diplomats and military officers who were active
in Iraq planning terrorist attacks against US forces.

In a shocking admission, Iran's pro-Iran president Jamal Talabani admitted
that some of the apprehended Iranian personnel were in Iraq on the basis of
agreements he had personally negotiated and signed with Iran, with support
from the Badr Brigade, whom the Iranian forces were in Iraq to advise.

Talabani's admission left embarrassed faces at the Maliki-Sadr government,
which apparently knew little about the contents of the Talabani-Iran
agreements. The US Pentagon and the new Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
were also embarrassed by the apprehension of these Iranian spies and
terrorists. Just ten days ago, the Pentagon released its assessment of
security threats in Iraq that did not even raise the topic of Iranian
subversion.

In economic affairs, Talabani and Hakim are also selling out Iraq's
interests to Iran in breathtaking fashion. The deal Talabani and Hakim
have arranged is that when southern Iraq breaks away from Baghdad (Hakim's
top priority) it will take Basra and its oil wealth (Iraq's largest oil
reserves) as well. Meanwhile, when Kurdistan breaks away from Baghdad, it
will take Kirkuk, which has Iraq's second largest oil reserves. This is
theft on a massive scale by Talabani and Hakim. Moreover, this theft will
touch off a civil war in Iraq by enraged Sunnis, who will never accept such
terms.

The big unanswered question is why the US has permitted the Talabani-Hakim
government to overshadow the Maliki-Sadr government? Many observers say the
US favors Talabani and Hakim because it favors an Iranian takeover of Iraq.
If support for an Iranian takeover of Iraq is true US policy, President Bush
would do well to present the case on how this pro-Iran policy would advance
US interests when he makes his upcoming speech on Iraq. In particular, he
could inform Congress and the US public of details of his recent plan to
replace Maliki with Hakim (or someone of his choice) as Prime Minister,
while sidelining Muqtada al-Sadr. Again, are Iran and the US on the same
side in Iraq?

 

Petroleumworld

 

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Petroleumworld News 12/28/06

Copyright© 2006 Petroleumworld. All rights reserved.

 

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