Lagniappe
Gustavo Coronel:
Chavez
buys weapons, venezuelans go hungry
The
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has the
following statistics about Venezuela, updated to March 2006.
1. Undernourishment has grown from 15% in 1997 to 18% in 2003.
2. In 1997 3.4 million Venezuelans were undernourished. In 2003
this figure had increased to 4.5 million.
3. Dietary consumption in kilocalories per person per day was
2380 in 1997, decreasing to 2350 in 2003.
4. Food exports in 1997 were 138 as compared to the base of 100
in 1990. In 2003 exports of food had fallen to 63 on the same
basis, while imports had greatly increased.
In other words availability of food for the Venezuelan population
has decreased significantly, in spite of a government program
called Mercal, which provides subsidized or even free food to
certain segments of the population and which has become a tragic
source of corruption, as food companies engaged in the supply
and distribution of such foods have been bought by government
bureaucrats through intermediaries. Today most food is imported
due to the collapse of domestic agricultural production. This
collapse, in turn, has been caused by unrealistic, state imposed
prices and by the invasion of productive lands by squatters acting
under the protection and encouragement of the government. In the
last weeks there has been an almost total absence of meat, sugar
and other basic foods in the country.
This deterioration in food security contrasts significantly with
the dramatic increase in the acquisition of weapons during the
last four years or so. Venezuela has already spent or committed
close to $6 billion in weapons, mostly from Russia but also from
China and Spain, including assault rifles, satellites, jet fighter
planes, helicopters, transport planes, frigates, and tanks. Recently
planned for, or actual acquisitions of weapons have accelerated
to include three batteries of Russian Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missiles
at some $100 million each.
In addition, significant efforts are being made to acquire modern
submarines. For the last two years the Hugo Chavez government
has been shopping around for submarines with air independent propulsion,
AIP. This type of submarine can stay submerged for much longer
periods of time, up to two to three weeks, and is equipped with
more effective weaponry. The search by Chavez for this type of
submarine in France, Germany and Italy has been unsuccessful,
due to the reluctance of these countries to contribute to the
arming of the verbally aggressive Chavez regime. Russia, again,
has emerged as the most likely source of supply.
The AIP submarine has been evolving for many years, since World
War II. During this war both Germany and the Soviet Union had
prototypes built, the German working with hydrogen peroxide, the
Soviet with a mixture of liquid oxygen and diesel. Both proved
to be highly dangerous. In the 1950’s the U.S. developed
the X-1, a midget submarine of this type, working with hydrogen
peroxide. After an explosion in 1957 it was sent to the Navy Museum
in Groton, Connecticut. A British version, the HMS Explorer, became
better known as the HMS Exploder. The first submarine of this
type in regular service is the Gotland class submarine, built
by Sweden. The U.S. has leased one of these submarines, based
in the San Diego, California area. It is being used to develop
military strategies and tools to neutralize this type of vessels.
However, in all military exercises made so far this submarine
has been able to “destroy” the most sophisticated
U.S. nuclear submarines and, even, the U.S. largest aircraft carrier,
the U.S.S. Reagan. According to the captain of the submarine,
Navy CMDR. Frederick Linden, there is no place in the coast of
the U.S. where this submarine cannot go. Obviously the U.S. will
have to develop, rather urgently, capabilities against this type
of potential threat.
What Chavez is currently trying to obtain is the Russian version
of the AIP submarine, called the AMUR-1650, intended by the Russians
for export. This submarine, as far as I have been able to find
out, is not yet being built. There is a military version for the
use of the Russian navy called the “Saint Petersburg”
but there are not yet AMUR-1650’s.
The Morskaya Tekhnika industrial group is promoting the AMUR-1650.
It would come armed with six 533-mm.-torpedo tubes. It is conceived
by their designers as an underwater sea hunter, capable of destroying
any target by using torpedoes, missiles or mines. They would cost
an estimated $330 million each. Although an improved version of
this submarine is being developed by Russia together with Italy’s
Fincantieri group, this improved version would not be available
to Chavez due to political considerations. A $3.5 billion order
for six of these improved vessels has already been placed by India.
The Chavez government is reported to be interested in nine submarines
type AMUR1650, at a cost of some $3 billion. Even if the order
were placed today the first submarine of this type would not be
in the hands of Chavez before 2012.
Would Chavez still be around? An expert known to us reminds us
that this delay is very significant and that, when dealing with
the acquisition of weapons, what is vital is not so much the equipment
but the operators. This became evident during the Desert War between
Israel and Egypt. Although Egypt had more and better equipment
Israel had, by far, better operators and strategists.
The fundamental question remains: if food security and poverty
are the main enemies of Venezuela, why is Chavez spending or committing
close to $10 billion to buy weapons, in order to protect Venezuela
from a military enemy that does not exist? If, as he claims, the
U.S. were to invade Venezuela the military outcome would not be
in doubt. The weapons acquired or ordered by Chavez would not
do him much good, mostly because the army is in great disarray
and demoralized and because the Venezuelan people will not fight
for a dictator. 40% of the Venezuelan population firmly opposed
him at the polls and 85% of the population firmly opposes his
attempt at establishing another Cuba in our country. Venezuelans
would not like to see a U.S. invasion but would not fight for
Chavez. Why should we defend a man who spends $10 billion in weapons,
in itself a source of enormous corruption, but is clearly incapable
of promoting true progress and quality of life among the people?
Gustavo Coronel
is a 28 years oil industry veteran, a member of the first board
of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), author
of several books. At the present Coronel is Petroleumworld associate
editor and advisor on the opinion and editorial content of Petroleumworld.
Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld
News 02/22/07
Copyright©2006
Gustavo Coronel.
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