Lagniappe

 

 

Scott Sullivan: Turkey must strike,
immediately to take Kirkuk and Basra

First, Turkey now knows, if it had any lingering doubts, that the US favors
an independent Kurdistan and the Kurdish annexation of Kirkuk, as shown by
the favorable US stance on Iraq's oil law, which opens the way to both
Kurdish objectives.

Second, the US has demonstrated that it is prepared to deceive Turkey about
its pro-Kurdish stance, as when the US defends its stance on Iraq's oil law.
In other words, US assurances that it will constrain the PKK in Kirkuk are
worthless and are humiliating for Turkey, while emboldening the PKK, when
Turkey accepts them.

Third, Turkey is deceiving itself if it believes the Iraqis want to discuss
the Kirkuk issue in good faith. Postponing the Kirkuk referendum is not an
option for Baghdad, which is in the hands of Iran and the Kurds.

Fourth, assured of Iranian and US support, the Kurds have no incentive to
compromise on Kirkuk. As time goes by and the US support is formalized in
agreements, the more eager the Kurds will be eager to escalate against
Turkey in hopes of drawing Iran or the US, hopefully both, on their side.
Moreover, as the Iranian-US partnership deepens in Iraq, they will
coordinate their actions against Turkey, especially in Kurdistan.

Fifth, time is not on the side of Turkey in building military capabilities
in Kirkuk. The longer Turkey waits, the more Barzani can change the facts on
the ground by allowing more Kurds to resettle in Kirkuk, while each day more
of the pro-Turkish population is forced out of Kirkuk.

Sixth, with each passing day the PKK is able to strengthen its combat
capabilities in Kirkuk. The opposite is true for pro-Turkish forces, such as
Muqtada al-Sadr's militia, which is growing weaker by the day due to US
repression.

Seventh, if Turkey takes Kirkuk now, Turkey can count on the support of
Syria and Saudi Arabia, including participation in a Turkish-led
peacekeeping force. If Turkey waits, the US is provided the opportunity to
co-opt or coerce both against Turkey.

Eighth, as Iraq's new oil law kicks in, Kirkuk will experience a financial
bonanza that will underwrite a military buildup, to Turkey's disadvantage.
Moreover, the international oil companies will increasingly become
stakeholders in Kirkuk.

Ninth, with each passing day, Kurdistan takes on more of the trappings and
the legitimacy of a genuine state. This trend is obviously not to Turkey's
advantage. In this context, European support for the Kurdish state will grow
as time goes by.

Tenth, and most importantly, with each passing day the PKK is better able to
coordinate an internal uprising in Turkey with the defense of Kirkuk. As
this PKK capability improves, Turkey may discover that the military option
for Kirkuk is no longer on the table and that the PKK has prevailed in
Kirkuk and in Turkey itself.

In short, Turkey must act now to secure Kirkuk. A decision to delay brings
Turkey no advantages but many disadvantages. Act with overwhelming strength
today.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 02/28/07

Copyright©2006 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved

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