Lagniappe

 

 

Scott Sullivan: Ahmadinejad
the new Che and Gates helps him

 

Ahmadinejad is the new Che Guevara, not Hugo Chavez. Ahmadinejad, like Che,
is an ultra-leftist and utopian (see quote below). Chavez, for all his
ideological posturing, is merely a traditional military strong man, not a
revolutionary. Whereas Ahmadinejad will provide the energy, the drive, and
most importantly the terrorists for South America's revolution, Chavez will
provide the money. Ahmadiejad, like Che before him and for the same reasons
as Che, has selected Bolivia as his revolutionary base. Che and Ahmadinejad
know that Bolivia is the ideal jumping off point for subversion in the
region, for three reasons.

First, Bolivia shares borders with Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru, and
Paraguay, and can easily spread subversion to any of them. The first three
are Latin America's wealthiest states, and all are rivals to Chavez.
Ahdmadinejad will go after all three.

Second, Bolivia will spread regional subversion via the ultra-leftist and
terrorist groups that proliferate in Bolivia, as well as through Bolivia's
Indo-American community that has influence in neighboring states, and which
Indo-American president Evo Morales has whipped into a revolutionary fervor.

Third, Bolivia has a weak and unstable government with only one strong
institution, the Bolivian military. With US assent, Bolivia's military is
now in partnership with Morales, Ahmadinejad, Castro, and Chavez.

Ahmadinejad is mounting an offensive - with full support from Castro and
Hugo Chavez -- to push US influence from South America. To this end,
Ahmadinejad is reopening Iranian embassies in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador,
Uruguay, and Bolivia, embassies that will support Iranian terrorist groups
such as Hezbollah (Iranian terrorists carried out two spectacular attacks in
Argentina in the 1990's, including the destruction of the Israeli embassy).
Bolivia will soon be Ahmadinejad's main base of operations, for the reasons
noted above. Che's dream will be fulfilled, and the US will go down,
Ahmadinejad hopes, to a crashing defeat in South America.

Ahmadinejad wants four things from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who is
inclined to accept Iran. Gates is a long time proponent of "normalized"
US-Iran relations and co-author of a major study on how to normalize US-Iran
relations. Gates and James Baker are very close.

First, above all, Ahmadinejad needs time to consolidate in Bolivia. Iranian
arms and advisors, along with those from Cuba and Venezuela, will soon be
arriving in Bolivia. In the meantime the Bolivian military, with US
support, has been turned into an instrument of revolutionary mobilization,
as was done in Cuba (see Peteroleumworld.com, 5 March 07 for a detailed
assessment). While the transition of influence in Bolivia's military, from
the US to Iran and Chavez, is underway, Ahmadinjad will count on US
tolerance. In short, Ahmadinejad wants from Gates the continuity of policy
with the Rumsfeld era, as expressed in continued Bolivian
military-to-military ties with the US.

Second, Ahmainehad wants Secretary Gates to withhold all support, especially
military support, from the liberation movement in Bolivia's four eastern
provinces, who are preparing to break away from the La Paz government and
its Iranian advisors.

Third, Ahmadinejad wants US tolerance (i.e., no US military or economic
sanctions against Bolivia) as Ahmadinejad moves against the eastern
provinces and against Bolivia's neighbors.

Fourth, Ahmadinejad wants the US to remain passive on the diplomatic front
as Iran becomes a major power in South America. Iran will be watching
President Bush's upcoming trip to South America in mid-March for signs of a
tougher and more realistic anti-Iran policy. So far, no sign of a US policy
shift. As Ahmadinejad hoped, Gates is saying nothing about Iran.

QUOTE:

"Ahmadinejad is the first 'populist' leader Iranians have known. He is
restoring to an extent the "connectivity" of the Iranian regime with the
voiceless millions in Iran. This connectivity was snapped during the past
two decades since ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini passed away in 1989. Since
then, Iran's ruling elite, especially the religious establishment, began
incrementally deviating from the ideals of Ali Shariati that inspired the
storm troopers of the Islamic Revolution who poured into the streets of
Tehran chanting his name in the tumultuous winter of 1978 leading up to the
revolution the next year.

French philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre once said, "I have no religion, but if I
were to choose one, it would be that of Shariati." One of the two or three
foremost Islamic thinkers of the last century, Shariati's radical blend of
Islam and Marxism electrified a whole generation of Iranian revolutionaries
like Ahmadinejad."

"Ahmadinejad Held Hostage to Bazaar Politics," Asiatimesonline.com, 3
February 07.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 03/06/07

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