Lagniappe

 

 

Scott Sullivan:
Liberate eastern Bolivia; expell Iran terrorists

Evo Morales is living in a dream world of inaccurate favorable assumptions about his future success in Bolivia. The US should focus on liberating eastern Bolivia and convincing the South American states to expel the Iranian terrorist network.

Here is a picture of the dream world of Evo Morales.

First, Morales believes he has the US in a neutral position towards his revolution, at worst. At best, he hopes the US will continue to assist his revolution by retaining military advisors in Bolivia who will assist Morales in consolidating control over Bolivia’s armed forces.

Second, Morales thinks he can count on extensive economic and military support from Hugo Chavez. Morales also thinks he has no need of military support from Cuba.

Third, Morales thinks he can count on support from Iran, which is gathering a formidable Hezbollah terrorist capability in South America.

Fourth, Evo Morales believes he has perfected a strategy of taking power in Bolivia through a combination of mob actions and parliamentary elections. Eastern Bolivia will not push back.

Evo Morales is wrong on every issue. As a result Morales will go down in failure. The Morales’ downfall will provide a unique opportunity for the US to expel the Iranian terrorist presence in South America.

Here are the policy mistakes that are bringing Morales down.

First, Morales is wrong if he is relying on a favorable US stance towards his revolution. Although President Bush supports Morales, he could quickly turn against Morales. Republican grass roots activists are now focused on the threat in South America from Ahmadinejad, Chavez, and Morales. Such Republican activists will argue that Bush is appeasing Iran in the Middle and that US appeasement of Iran in South America would be dangerous for US investment in the region.

Second, Morales is wrong if he thinks he can call upon extensive military support from Hugo Chavez. Chavez will say no given Chavez’s problems at home. Moreover, Morales needs considerable support from Cuba, which has a long experience in using the military to prop up weak governments and to combat insurgents. However, Cuba – for the same domestic political considerations as Venezuela -- will be very reluctant to assist Bolivia. In sum, Morales has no contingency plan for military support in the event Bolivia’s military proves unreliable.

Third, Morales is wrong if he believes Iranian support is an asset. On the contrary, Latin American public opinion will turn decisively against Morales at the first sign of Iran’s support for Morales.

Fourth, Morales is wrong to impose his new constitution on eastern Bolivia. Eastern Bolivia will block Morales by promoting the immediate separation of eastern Bolivia from the Morales government, just as Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia – all with full US support -- separated from Yugoslavia.

In sum, the way ahead is clear for a new US policy that would end Bush’s appeasement of Ahmadinejad, Morales and Chavez. The new US contains the following recommendations.

The US will pull its military advisors from the Morales government and all of western Bolivia, while retaining advisors in the six states of eastern Bolivia. The US shall encourage all other South American governments to withdraw their military advisors.

The US will warn Cuba and Venezuela against providing extensive military assistance to western Bolivia.

The US will advocate the political separation of eastern Bolivia from the La Paz government. The US will ask the South American states to provide assistance to the new government in eastern Bolivia. Such assistance shall include support for arming and training the military forces of eastern Bolivia. Also, the US shall warn western Bolivia’s military against intervention in eastern Bolivia. In fact, the US shall ask Brazil and the OAS to guarantee border security for eastern Bolivia.

Finally, the US will convene a special session of the OAS to address the threat to regional stability from Iranian terrorism. Iran is building a terrorist capability in South America because it wants to turn South America into a battleground for resolving Middle East issues.

Moreover, with the USSR’s demise, Iran intends to take control over the major terrorist groups by eliminating South America’s Communists.

In short, the Iranian terrorist presence in South America must be ended, and soon. The US shall take the following initiatives.

The US will gain support from Russia and China for expelling Iranian terrorists from South America and invite Russia and China to the OAS meeting as observers. Russia and China will understand a policy of excluding Iran from South America because they are excluding Iran from a major role in Central Asia.

China shall prepare an OAS briefing on Peru’s Shining Path organization and the support provided by extremist groups in China. OAS members will assess the future prospects for Maoist terrorism in South America and the potential for Iranian funding for Maoist groups.

The US shall prepare an intelligence briefing on Iran’s terrorist capabilities in South America. The US will demand that the South American governments shut down all Iranian embassies involved in terrorist operations; that Iran cooperate with Argentina’s investigation into former president Rafsanjani’s role in sponsoring terrorism in Argentina; and that all South American states deny visas to Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani until Iran’s cooperation with Argentina’s investigation is forthcoming.

The US will recommend that the OAS engage Cuba in the campaign against Iranian terrorism in South America.

Finally, the US should announce that it would prefer to combat South American terrorism by means of the OAS. Should the OAS falter, however, the US will form a “coalition of the willing” of South American states to confront Ahmadinejad, Morales and Chavez.

 

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 12/14/07

Copyright© 2007 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.

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