Lagniappe

 

 

Scott Sullivan:
Russia confronts Iran in South America

Iran’s Nazi president Ahmadinejad and his ultra-leftist allies Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales (who want Revolution Today!) are vying for influence against Russia throughout South America.

Hugo Chavez is sweeping into his camp the Inca racists like Felipe Quispe, via Evo Morales and Bolivia; the South American Germans/Nazis via Paraguay; the FARC, which is active in Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Brazil and Suriname; as well as the Andean Maoist groups such as the Shining Path.

Meanwhile, Iran is quietly building a Latin American version of Hezbollah. Iran will soon be opening embassies and offices in seven countries including in Bolivia, a step that will significantly increase Iran’s potential to support terrorism in South America.

Meanwhile, Iranians are hiding their actual capabilities to support terrorism by refusing cooperation with an investigation into Iran/Hezbollah terrorism by the Argentine government and Interpol. Iran reportedly refuses to cooperate because the Argentine government has information that would implicate former president Rafsanjani and the Iranian government as a whole in planning terrorism against Argentina.

In 1995, Iran’s Latin American Hezbollah struck first at Argentina by blowing up the Israeli embassy and a cultural center, killing dozens of innocent civilians. Hezbollah in Latin America is one of the Iranian-sponsored terrorist groups that would offer support to Chavez and Morales.

Many observers predict that the next next move in terrorism by Ahmadinejad and Chavez will be in Central America. As a recent James Oppenheimer op-ed points out, Chavez’s best chance of political survival is to play the Central American card. This means Chavez must bring the Sandinistas and the FMLN under his control. This will not be easy because these organizations do not want to report to him. Moreover, Russia and China will have objections to Ahmadinejad’s power play in Central America.

In sum, a major conflict is brewing between the two major leftist factions in South America. This time the lineup has the Iranians and ultra-leftists versus Russia and the orthodox Communist parties.

South America experienced this same type of intra-leftist rivalry in the 1960’s, when Che Guevara was active. In Che’s camp were the Maoists, the Trotskyites, and the New Left anarchists and “Ultras.”

In Russia’s camp against Guevara were China, Cuba, and South America’s communist establishment, i.e. the Old Left. The collective view of the Russians and the Old Left was that Che had vastly overestimated the potential for revolution in Bolivia and the Andes; that his crusade in 1968 Bolivia would fail, even with Russian and Cuban support; and that Che’s failure would bring disgrace on all South American communists associated with Che’s risky venture.

This conflict between Russian moderates and South American ultra-leftists will be replayed in 2008, this time in Central America. Hugo Chavez and Ahmadinejad would love to play the Central American revolution card against the US. The problem is that when Comrade Hugo plays the Sandinista and FMLN cards against the US, he also plays them against Russia, who would be called upon to finance Daniel Ortega and the FMLN and to backstop them with political and military support in a confrontation with the US.

In short, from Russia’s point of view, Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales and their Iranian allies must go, just like Che Guevara had to go. Meanwhile, Putin knows that the US and China – backstopped by most South American governments -- will be Russia’s new best friends against South America’s ultras. In other words, Putin’s next move will be to open a liaison office in Southcom, the sooner the better.

 

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 12/17/07

Copyright© 2007 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.

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