Lagniappe

 

Scott Sullivan:
Bush's surprise visit to Iran?

 

Do not be surprised if President Bush visits Tehran during his trip to the Middle East. As IranWatch.com has reported in the past two years, Bush believes Iran is his new strategic partner in the Middle East against the Arabs and Turkey. To promote the US-Iran strategic partnership,, Bush has bribed Iran with US concessions on nuclear weapons issues, Iran’s presence in Nicaragua, Iran’s presence in the Straits of Hormuz, and Iran’s presence in Iraq,

Bush has provided Iran with concessions on nuclear weapons issues by approving the release of CIA’s National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear programs. By commissioning and releasing the NIE, Bush has emboldened Iran and demoralized the anti-Iran Arab coalition, which no longer views Bush as a reliable partner in a strategy to contain Iran.

Bush has provided Iran with concessions in Nicaragua by permitting Iran to take Daniel Ortega as a strategic partner. Ortega wants to provide Iran with access to Nicaraguan military bases. From military bases in Nicaragua Iran could mount terrorist operations throughout Central America and the Caribbean. Moreover, once provided bases in Nicaragua, Iran could join forces against the US with Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, and Evo Morales.

Bush has provided Iran with concessions in the Straits of Hormuz by issuing rules of engagement that favor Iranian forces (see Ken Timmerman, “Iran Seeks Confrontation in the Gulf,” Newsmax.com).

Moreover, Bush has provided Iran with military and economic concessions in Iraq.

First, Bush has turned Iraq’s government over to Iran and its Kurdish partners, as shown by yesterday’s Washington Post op-ed by David Ignatius, “A Surge Against Maliki.” According to David Ignatius, the US has encouraged Iran to stage a coup against Iraq’s nationalist ruling coalition in Iraq of Prime Minister Maliki, Shiite Muqtada al-Sadr, and Ayatollah Sistani. Iran would replace Maliki with Iraqi Vice President Mahdi who is loyal to Tehran.

Second, US forces are paving the way for a Iranian coup against Iraq by arming and training the Kurds as well as the pro-Iran Shiite militias, such as the Badr Brigade. In fact, the US has gone so far as to strengthen the Badr Brigade in Basra and southern Iraq by staging raids on Sadr-controlled districts. Basra is Iraq’s major center for oil production ad Iraqi oil exports. Once Iran and the Badr Brigade take Basra, most of southern Iraq will come under Iranian control.

Third, at the request of Iran and the Kurds, the US has blocked all Turkish and Arab forces from entering Iraq, even as the US permits Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to take control of Iraq’s new army and police forces.

Fourth, Bush has permitted Iran and the Kurds to partition Iraq by forcing PM Maliki to hand over Kirkuk over to the Kurdish forces (again, see David Ignatius op-ed). Kirkuk is Iraq’s second largest oil producing district, following Basra.

Fifth, Bush has compelled Turkey to give way to the PKK, which occupies a large section of northern Iraq and which supports Kurdish and Iranian partition of Iraq. The US wants Turkey to limit its military operations against the PKK to a few symbolic airstrikes against abandoned PKK camps.

In short, as noted earlier, to promote the US-Iran strategic partnership, President Bush is offering US concessions on nuclear weapons issues, Nicaragua, Iran’s presence in the Straits of Hormuz, and Iran’s presence in Iraq. Do not be surprised by a Tehran Summit, just as Nixon went to China.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 01/11/08

Copyright© 2008 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.

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