Lagniappe

 

Scott Sullivan:
McCain's failed plan in Kosovo

 

The Republican Party is making a fatal error by supporting McCain for president because he is dragging the US into a potenmtially costly and unnecessary war in the Balkans against Serbia and Russia. See my op-ed, “Huckabee Will Crush McCain,” the Conservative Voice, 8 February 2008.

Senator McCain and Senator Clinton are pushing the US into war by permitting Albania and its allies to take Serbia’s Kosovo Province. The new Balkan war triggered by Kosovo separation would begin as early as next week, shortly after Kosovo proclaims independence from Serbia. This coming Sunday is Kosovo’s stated date for declaring independence from Serbia.

Without debate or vote in the US Senate, McCain and Clinton are leading the US deeper into Kosovo’s defense and into conflict with Serbia and Russia. To be specific, McCain and Clinton want the US to support the independence of Serb-ruled Kosovo province by bringing NATO firepower including US troops to bear against Serbia, which will resist the loss of Kosovo. At the outset of Kosovo independence, the UN and EU forces will take responsibility for policing in Kosovo. At the first sign of Serbian resistance against Kosovo’s separation from Serbia, Senators McCain and Clinton will be the first to call for deploying NATO forces to Kosovo.

Senator McCain must have approved this war plan to separate Kosovo from Serbia, given his long-time sponsorship of war against Serbia and Russia, Serbia’s closest ally. Excellent! By approving this plan McCain has shown that he is entirely unsuited to be commander in chief.

Two scenarios are open to the US under McCain’s ill-informed plan. The best case scenario would consist of a quick Serbian partition of Kosovo at Mitrovica, in exactly the same way as Russia took Mitrovica and partitioned Kosovo in 1999, only to retreat as Boris Yeltsin gave way to Bill Clinton’s pressure on Kosovo.

Kosovo’s partition, which is the US’s “best case” scenario, would create a nightmare for US forces in Kosovo, for several reasons. First, the territory of southern Kosovo, deprived of Mitrovica’s industry and Mitrovica’s access to Serbian markets, would quickly decline to become another Gaza strip and a home base for Albanian (KLA) and Iranian terrorism, all under the protection of US and NATO forces. Second, US/NATO forces in particular would face a significant threat from Albanian and Iranian terrorists, who would blame the US for yielding Mitrovica and northern Kosovo to Serbia in the first place. Third, US forces in southern Kosovo would be at significant risk from Serbian terrorists operating from Mitrovica. In short, this “best case” outcome would be a disaster for McCain in personal terms.

How about the worst case scenario? The worst case scenario would be for the Serbians and Russians to turn over Mitrovica and northern Kosovo over to NATO and US forces as pro0mised, and as McCain is asking. The US and NATO/EU/UN forces would then face the Serbs in northern Kosovo as adversaries. US forces would compelled to initiate a sweeping and costly counterinsurgency operation, similar to operation Surge in Iraq, directed both at Serbian as well as Albanian and Iranian terrorism.

Moreover, under both scenarios, best and worst case, the US would be compelled large numbers of troops from Iraq and deployed to the Balkans. WE can assume that US opponents such as l-Qaeda and the pro-Iranian militias will soon discover that Senator McCain has just pushed the button for the US abandonment of Iraq. Now the truth can be told: The US will abandon Iraq because of the determination of Senators McCain and Clinton a commitment to separate Kosovo from Serbia and to establish, under NATO auspices, a ring of military bases around Serbia.

In short, in either the best case scenario (partition of Kosovo at Mitrovica) or the worst case scenario (no partition of Kosovo ) the NATO/US forces would create three separate tragedies. First. Kosovo, which is now relatively stable, would soon again be at war. Second, the US would be compelled to establish an immediate and accelerated timetable for withdrawing US forces from Iraq, to the beefit of Al-Qaedaq and Iran, who would take over Iraq. Third, Senator McCain’s reputation as a military planner would take a major hit.

What should the loyal (i.e. anti-Kosovo intervention) Republicans and Democrats do about this unfolding tragedy in Iraq and Kosovo? The loyal Republicans and Democrats should take two immediate steps.

First, members of Congress should insist on a Senate floor debate and vote on a resolution of disapproval for US military deployments to Kosovo, especially if such deployments degrade US defenses in Iraq. Second, if McCain and Clinton continue to collaborate in deploying US troops to Kosovo, which is folly because no victory for US troops is unattainable, as shown above, then presidential candidates Huckabee and Obama need to talk.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views

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Petroleumworld News 02/13/08

Copyright© 2008 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved.

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