Lagniappe
Alvaro
Vargas Llosa : The Latins Go Nuclear
While the world was concentrating on Iran's nuclear drama, some Latin
American nations were going nuclear too. Argentina and Brazil have relaunched
their nuclear energy programs big time and in Chile, despite President
Michelle Bachelet's initial skepticism, officials are beginning to consider
that option.
In
the case of Brazil and Argentina, it's all about an old rivalry so bitter
that cross-border jokes run something like this: A Brazilian tells an
officer that he has run over an Argentine visitor and neglected to inform
the victim's family.
"Well done, you might have caused a war if you had told them. You
are a pacifist," the officer replies.
"But when I
buried him, he shouted that he was alive,'' explains the contrite Brazilian.
"Don't worry,''
comes the response, "they all lie.''
Brazil, which has
the world's sixth-largest reserves of uranium, recently inaugurated
a couple of centrifuges in its enrichment facility at Resende. This
plant will feed the country's two nuclear reactors. At present, those
reactors provide 4 percent of the nation's electricity but President
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's plan will significantly expand the nuclear
component of the energy matrix with seven new plants to be built over
the next 15 years.
Argentina also has
two reactors providing 9 percent of the nation's electricity. But President
Nestor Kirchner has announced a $3.5 billion program that includes a
third plant, conducting feasibility studies for a fourth, and reopening
a uranium enrichment facility at Pilcaniyeu that was closed after a
nuclear weapons program was revealed at the end of military rule in
1983.
Both countries say
their intentions are benign. Brazil's centrifuges will only enrich uranium
to 3.5 percent U-235, well below the 90 percent concentration needed
for weapons. However, military establishments in both countries have
a history with nuclear weapons and delivery systems. In the 1970s, Brazil
secretly transferred its technology to a military program known as Solimoes.
The program was scrapped in 1990 under foreign pressure. In Argentina,
the military developed "Condor'' strategic missiles until they
were decommissioned in the 1990s. Since then, both countries have signed,
and complied with, nonproliferation treaties, and military leaders are
no longer in power.
I call attention
to this because there is no economic logic behind the relaunching of
the nuclear programs. It is all about national pride and regional power
politics. The energy problems could easily be solved in more economic
ways and prevent future tensions.
The reason for natural
gas shortages in Argentina is that price controls have caused an investment
drought at a time when economic growth has spurred demand for electricity.
In the last five years, the electricity capacity has remained at around
17,000 megawatts while the economy has grown strongly. Brazilians, in
turn, are worried by Bolivia's nationalization of energy production
-- they depend on that country for half of their natural gas consumption.
But that is still a small part of the energy mix. For example, the country
has announced it will very soon be oil-independent. Thanks to stunning
new technology, Brazil's energy giant Petrobras is drilling ultra-deep
offshore wells in the Barracuda and Caratinga fields in the Atlantic,
east of Rio de Janeiro.
Admittedly, there
is a worldwide nuclear energy revival. New plants are being built or
renewed in Europe and the U.S. is pursuing an expensive government-funded
effort to give nuclear power the kiss of life. Russia, India and others
are commissioning new reactors, and so is Australia -- with Argentine
technology. High oil prices and the fact that nuclear power is clean
have helped people overcome the trauma of the Three Mile Island meltdown
in the U.S. and, especially, the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine.
How long will this
new fad last? Probably until some new development leads people to say
that nuclear power is not so clean after all since despite 60 years
of research, no great solution to the disposal of nuclear waste has
been found.
Should Latin American
governments that have abundant and cheaper energy sources undertake
massive programs that could eventually become unpopular? Of course,
if private investors want to invest in a nuclear reactor to sell electricity,
they should be free to do so. But nuclear plants are not profitable
business ventures. It is ironic that such projects are being launched
by governments of the same left-wing parties that once denounced their
nuclear programs when the military governed their countries.
If
the United States, a very wealthy nation, wants to divert resources
to subsidize the revival of nuclear energy in the context of a national
hysteria about oil, it's a luxury Americans can probably afford. Latin
Americans can't.
Alvaro
Vargas Llosa,
a
native of Peru, veteran journalist Alvaro Vargas Llosa offers inhis
Washington Post column, commentary on international news with an emphasis
on Latin American affairs, Alvaro Vargas Llosa is the author of "Liberty
for Latin America,'' is the director of the Center on Global Prosperity
at the Independent Institute.(AVLlosa@independent.org).
Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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News 09/27/06
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Alvaro Vargas Llosa.
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