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Lagniappe
Scott Sullivan :
Syria vs. Iran -- the Real War
Regardless of whether the Republican or Democratic party directs US defense
institutions in the Executive Branch, , or which party wins control of
Congress in the mid-term elections, the US will have to pick a side in the
Real War between Syria and Iran for control of Iraq, Lebanon, and the
Palestinian Authority. Whoever controls Iraq controls Lebanon and the PA.To put it another way, is the US with Assad/Tito, or Ahmaedinejad/Hitler?
Is the US with Muqtada al Sadr and the Mahdi Army in Iraq, supported by
Syria; or with Abdul Azziz al-Hakim and the Badr Brigades, supported by
Iran?Secretary Rice is on her way to the region next week and all indications are
is that she is with Ahmadinejad and Hakim.Just how high are the stakes for Assad and Muqtada al Sadr? Why are they
choosing this time to dig in?The stakes are high for Assad and al-Sadr because they know they are dead
men if Iran prevails in Iraq. Their names are on Ahmadinejad's short list
once he consolidates in Iraq.Assad and al-Sadr have chosen this moment to dig in because the US has
decided to throw its weight behind Iran in Iraq and the region. This US
decision has unleashed Iran to attack in the region at will, and spells doom
for Syria, Iraq's Sunni and Shia, and the Sunni states in general.Look at what is happening is Basra as this is being written. Basra is
Iraq's second most important city, following Baghdad. Basra has Iraq's only
large port, and therefore controls a large part of Iraq's oil exports as
well as imports of supplies for US forces in Iraq. Basra also contains 60%
of Iraq's proven oil reserves. Basra is the city Iran would like to
establish as the center of is proposed state of Shiastan, essentially
southeastern Iraq.In short, Iran's plan is to turn Baghdad into a battleground between US
forces, Iraqi Sunnis under Osama's control via Anbar province, and Muqtada
al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. While all these elements are fighting and destroying
each other, Kurdistan would walk away with Kirkuk (Iraq's second largest oil
producing region by far) while Iran would walk away with Basra. The Sunnis
would be left with nothing and would be driven by Iran from Iraqi soil.Meanwhile, the twin victories by Iran and the Kurds could destabilize
Syria, which is 60 percent SunnI and which has a large Kurdish minority.
As a result, Syria could break up a state.This an ideal plan for Iran because Iran's principal rivals and adversaries
(US, Syria and Saudi Arabia/Osama) take each other out while Iran not only
sits on the sidelines but annexes Shiastan as well. Perfect!However, Iran needs two things to happen before it can move ahead. First,
the US has to be convinced that Muqtada al Sadr, not Iran, is the main
threat and to concentrate US forces mainly in Baghdad, which is al Sadr's
political base. This has been done.Second, prior to annexing Shiastan, and before launching all out civil war
in Baghdad, Iran must take political control of Basra, which is now under
the control of Muqtada al-Sadr and his allies. This has not been done.How would Iran take control in Basra? Today the governor of Basra city,
Mohammed al-Waelia, accused police officers of trying to assassinate him.
He is from the Fadhila party, which is allied with al-Sadr.Is Iran making its move in Basra? Is Iran coordinating its move with new US
pressure against Assad and al-Sadr?
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 10/02/06
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