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In the United States, there has been little or no attention given to the December presidential election in Venezuela. For the first time Hugo Chavez is facing a strong opposition candidate. Manuel Antonio Rosales comes from the powerful oil state of Zulia with the second largest city in Venezuela, Maracaibo, however Rosales would be the first President of Venezuela from Zulia. Rosales has been governor of Zulia since 2000, winning a second term in 2004. Zulia did not become Chavista, but remained independent, even sprouting maps and tee shirts with the outline of the state as Venezuela, and the rest of Venezuela as “en Reclamacion.” The map of Venezuela since 1966 has claimed half of Guyana as the Zone in Reclamation. Maracuchos (from Maracaibo) have a sense of humour.

Manuel Rosales after becoming the Unity candidate on August 19, 2006, has continued to gain popularity among all classes of Venezuelans. He has gone into the poor barrios of Caracas and the Chavistas have poured out to hail him. His slogan has become “Atrevete” (Dare to Change), and he has a plan, easily understood by the poor Venezuelans, who are the majority. It is an opportunity to reduce poverty, and stimulate entrepreneurial capacity. Called Mi Negra, it will be a debit card for poor citizens to collect their Venezuelan patrimony: their share of government revenues from the sale of petroleum production.

In the U.S., we have private mineral rights, but in Venezuela like the rest of the world, the nation, i.e., all the citizens, own the mineral rights. The problem with this is that the people never get any dividends from the production of their mineral rights. So, Governor Rosales is seeking a way where poor families and the unemployed in the middle class will now benefit from Venezuela’s petroleum wealth. (Later on all Venezuelans should benefit.) For many years, Venezuela has received high returns on its petroleum industry, however, these returns have not reduced poverty since the Government administers the revenues and through corrupt and inefficient practices wastes a large portion. During the last seven years, the Chavez regime, the most corrupt and inefficient, has received around $200 billion in oil revenues, while doubling Venezuela’s national debt, and increasing Venezuelan poverty!

Mi Negra recognizes the value of the family and the Venezuelan woman. As the citizen gains economic power, the bureaucracy should lose power and corruption should decline. To get the card the only requirement is a cedula (domestic identification), and Mi Negra will be accepted by all national banks when used by the owner of the card. The details are still being worked out, but the distribution would be 20% of the net petroleum revenues. Initially the distribution would come out of the Fondo de Desarrollo National (Fonden) that supposedly has between $11 to 14 billion and Chavez is now using to give to other countries, buy arms, planes, etc. The estimated benefits to be given under Mi Negra to the poor are Bs. 2,500,000 monthly, and the unemployed would get the minimum wage.

This idea of Mi Negra is credible, except that the oil production under Chavez has declined over 1 million barrels per day and continues to decline for lack of maintenance, investment, and the competent oilmen Chavez fired. Therefore, to make this plan work, the Rosales government would have to immediately start to bring Petroleos de Venezuela back to life.

When Alaska opened up Prudhoe Bay on the North Slope, in 1977, the State set up a Permanent Fund using 25% of all mineral royalties, bonuses, and money from leases ($900 million just from the Prudhoe Bay lease sale in 1969) to invest in bank savings accounts and U.S. Treasury obligations. Originally, it was passed by the Legislature and then put to a vote by Alaskans in November 1976. Alaska had $2 billion in the Fund by 1981, and by 2002 it had $23 billion. Each year the citizens of Alaska get their dividend check. Imagine how many bridges to nowhere the government could have built if they had control of that money.

While Mi Negra is popular with the people, Rosales’s program on foreign policy, especially regarding the U.S. and a return to normal relations, is good news to the educated Venezuelans. His promise to clean up Caracas (under Chavez it has become a Third World mess) and “make it look as nice and clean as he made Maracaibo look” was welcome. Rosales plans to foster the private ownership of land, both rural and urban. “Nobody in Venezuela will have to belong to any party in exchange for anything.“ “Dare to with Rosales -- for 26 million Venezuelans.”

Manuel Rosales has a unified candidacy in which he has named his former presidential competitors to important campaign positions. His main advisers come from Maracaibo. He is a man of the people, has served as a councilman and internal auditor of the Municipal Council, as well as Deputy to the Legislature of Zulia.

Between 1996 - 2000, Rosales was the Mayor of the city of Maracaibo, and since then Governor of Zulia. He has participated in a number of conferences, in: Paris, Tokyo, Berlin, as well as management courses. Honored with many Venezuelan medals and decorations, Rosales was also honored by Pope John Paul II. In December, Rosales will be 54. He has six children, and is married to the attractive, intelligent Eveling Trejo de Rosales, who has been a great asset as the Governor’s wife.

Thus, while Rosales is a man of the people he has traveled outside of Venezuela, unlike Chavez who had only been to Cuba to see Castro, before becoming President.

With no experience or ability to govern Venezuela, Hugo Chavez since becoming President has spent much of his time in his new Airbus traveling the world. The Venezuelans can expect President Rosales to govern Venezuela, having come up through the grassroots, and had six years of governing the large state of Zulia, which encompasses Lake Maracaibo with all the oil production, onshore and offshore. Furthermore, of the qualified, patriotic Venezuelans now attached to the Rosales campaign, one would expect some of them to serve in his administration.

On Saturday, October 7, 2006, the National Unity held a huge peaceful march for Rosales in Caracas. The main arteries, highways and streets filled up with Rosales supporters that easily reached 700,000 people. “Que molleja de avalancha” (What a tremendous avalanche), said Rosales.

One reason that Fidel Castro has been in power since 1959 is that the educated Cubans left Cuba. In Venezuela, a majority of the Venezuelans stayed when Hugo Chavez took over all the Venezuelan democratic institutions, determined not to turn their country over to Fidel Castro’s protégé. This opposition to Chavez has finally found a candidate and is united behind him! If Rosales does not win, this will be Venezuela’s last election during Chavez’s lifetime for he has no intention of ever giving up power!

While Manuel Rosales will have the votes to win the Presidency of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez controls the voting machines. Therefore, without Divine intervention, or a determined plan by the opposition to protect the votes, Chavez, the dictator, will continue to control Venezuela: its people and resources. But controlling Venezuela is not enough for Hugo Chavez; he has his sights set on all of Latin America, as he has already demonstrated.

Emma Brossard, Ph.D. is a former professor of government, and adviser to the Presidency of Petroleos de Venezuela (1985-1994). Author of several books on the petroleum industry, the last was on Hugo Chavez: Power and Petroleum: Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia.

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