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Lagniappe
Scott Sullivan :
Bush sanctions help North Korea/Iran
President Bush has created a huge booby-trap for the US and China
individually and for US-China bilateral relations with his ill-considered
sanctions proposal on North Korea. He should restructure the sanctions so
as to remove this booby-trap, thus sparing the US and China acute
embarrassment and a needless and counterproductive confrontation over US
sanctions policy that would benefit only North Korea and Iran.The US sanctions booby-trap is contained in the enforcement provisions on
North Korean imports and export of nuclear related technology and know. As
presently structured, President Bush's maritime sanctions put the
enforcement burden mainly on the US. Under Bush's proposal, , the US is
now under pressure to take immediate enforcement action including
interdicting North Korea's ships on the high seas, which would presumably be
boarded and searched by US forces, who would confiscate contraband cargo.Such a forceful maritime interdiction creates two intractable problems for
US policy. First, if Secretary Rice's statements on the Sunday talk shows
is to be believed, the US has no intention "at this time" of seizing North
Korean ships, or the ships of other states carrying North Koreas cargo.
This is a prudent move on her part given the firestorm of criticism that
would arise from North Korea and other countries were the US to undertake
unilateral enforcement actions.Yet Secretary Rice's step back clearly indicates a significant reluctance on
sanctions enforcement so as to render the sanctions themselves meaningless.On the other hand, let us assume a robust US sanctions enforcement effort on
the high seas, despite the substantial downside risks on US relations with
states that trade with North Korea. All the US will have done is to shift
the entire burden of sanctions enforcement on to China as North Korea
re-directs its maritime trade to China. Meanwhile, China would come under
US pressure to virtually shut down its 800 mule border with North Korea.
Such a provocation by China would present incalculable ramifications for
China-North Korean relations and problems such as China's policies on
humanitarian assistance for North Korea and the potential for massive North
Korean refugee flows into China.Simply put, the US has no chance of coercing China into becoming its
battering ram to destroy the Kim Jong-Il regime. Russia would also join
China in refusing to play the US-designated role of battering ram against
North Korea.This is not because China and Russia love Kim Jong-Il; far from it. To
China and Russia he is huge liability. They will not cooperate with
draconian US sanctions against North Korea because they do not yet consider
themselves as strategic partners of the US, and because the US is clearly
already a strategic partner with Iran in Iraq - at Chinese and Russian
expense.Iran and North Korea are allies, as shown by long standing North Korean
assistance to Iran's missile delivery program. China and Russia thus will
reason that it is futile for them to take costly and risky coercive actions
against North Korea, especially under US pressure, while US-Iranian
relations are permitted to deepen.In other words, the US is trapped by is own North Korean sanctions proposal.
The US has a choice of backing down on maritime sanctions enforcement in
the face of North Korean objections, thereby appearing to be irresolute on
North Korea policy.Alternatively, the US can move ahead with a unilateral and controversial
effort of robust sanctions enforcement and risk a rupture in US relations
with both China and Russia. What is worse, by going down this road the US
could actually drive China and Russia entirely into Kim Jong-Il's camp,
which is certainly not where they want to be and which would be a huge Bush
gift to North Korea.Perhaps President Bush wants to help North Korea, as he helped Iran, by
removing Saddam Hussein and propelling Iran to a dominant position in the
Middle East? Is President Bush hoping for a US/Iran/North Korea Axis? Is
President Bush now leading the Axis of Evil?US policy on North Korea and Iran can certainly find a better way.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 10/16/06
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