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The sanctions pessimists - those who said the US/UN sanctions on North Korea
would self-destruct -- were proved right within twenty-four hours. The
governments of South Korea and China made it clear that it will be business
as usual with North Korea despite the sanctions.

So what do the self-described "hard-liners" -- in reality they are
anarchists -- in and around the Bush Administration suggest? They have an
easy answer. The US should attack China and at the same time withdraw
forces from South Korea! (Washington Post, "An Offer Kim Can't Refuse," 16
October 06).

The time has passed for political posturing. The real question is how the
US can best bring along Russia and China to deter North Korean aggression.
At the moment, under US/UN sanctions, events are moving in the direction of
US isolation from Russia, China, and South Korea, which represents a
resounding defeat for US policy on North Korea.

The US should begin by taking a moment to consider how North Korea views the
US as a global actor. North Korea has four areas of concern.

The first source of North Korean concern is the US failure to reward North
Korea following Pyongyang's important support to the US and China during the
protracted and successful struggle against Soviet imperialism in Southeast
Asia. As noted here in a previous op-ed, North Korea, by offering political
support and sanctuary to Cambodia's legitimate government following the
invasion of Cambodia by Vietnam, helped set the stage for Vietnam's defeat,
not only in Cambodia but in Southeast Asia as well.

Moreover, North Korea, in cooperation with Tito and Milosevic's Yugoslavia
-- and with US support, as on Cambodia policy -- helped roll back Soviet,
Cuban, and Vietnamese influence in the UN, in Third World governments, and
in the Third World revolutionary organizations (see the autobiography of the
notorious Australian pro-Moscow journalist Wilfred Burchett for much more on
this).

However, the US, instead of recognizing these invaluable North Korean and
Yugoslav contributions to global security, downgraded its relations with
both states once the Soviet threat was pushed back.

The second area of North Korean concern (alarm is perhaps a better word)
comes from US policies favoring no rewards but intervention against former
US allies like Yugoslavia, Iraq, and North Korea itself. From North Korea's
perspective, US intervention in Yugoslavia and Iraq was a bitter US
political betrayal, as noted above. US military intervention in Yugoslavia
and Iraq was also seen by North Korea as a colossal failure with dire
political consequences for the Balkans and the Middle East.

In Yugoslavia, after breaking up Tito's state, the US, once again following
Germany's lead, is now pushing for Kosovo's independence from Serbia, which
will almost certainly destabilize the Republics of Macedonia and Montenegro,
at a minimum. Meanwhile in Iraq, the US -- in cooperation with Iran - is
advocating the breakup of Iraq into three separate states, a step that is
intensifying conflict within Iraq and throughout the Middle East.

North Korea's paranoia along these lines dates all the way back to the
post-WW II settlement that partitioned Korea into Northern and South Korean
states. In this sense, Kim Jong-Il sees North Korea, long before Yugoslavia
and Iraq, as the first victim of the US's "partition and conquer" policy.

Third, North Korea is alarmed by the pronounced US alignment with Germany
and Japan in the post-Cold War era at the expense of Russia, China,
Yugoslavia, and North Korea. In this scenario the US can easily toss
countries like Yugoslavia and North Korea over the side to placate Germany
and Japan respectively.

Fourth, North Korea will not cave in to US pressure because it sees the US
aligned with Iran in the Middle East without Iran being asked to meet US
political preconditions. North Korea believes it should be entitled to the
same US forgiveness, far more than Iran is entitled because Iran has never
once helped the US. Furthermore, North Korea sees Iran as wanting to take
over the Middle East via Persian imperialism, while North Korea is far less
ambitious in Northeast Asia.

In general, North Korea's fears and its cynical view of US policy is shared
by Russia and China. This is why China and Russia will never turn on North
Korea at the US's behest. This suggests that a US effort to confront Korea
will fail because North Korea will never give way and will be supported by
Russia and China.

In other words, the US needs to fall back and regroup. President Bush's
sanctions are already self-destructing, to the US's great embarrassment.
The US must re-evaluate North Korea policy from top to bottom before even
more damage is done.

In this regard, Ian's Nazi president Ahmadinejad points the way. He wants
to "reverse the verdict" on WW II. In Ahmadinejad's view, Germany and Japan
are both misunderstood victims, not aggressor states. Surely the US,
Russia, China, and North Korea can denounce this attempted Nazi comeback via
Iran. This is a good beginning for a US-North Korea dialogue and for
refining sanctions that will change North Korean behavior for the best.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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