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Fundamentos
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Lagniappe
Scott Sullivan:
Will the US Protect Basra from Iran?
The battle for Basra between Syria and Iran has been joined. Last week's
battle in Amara was the beginning, won by Muqtada al-Sadr who is aligned
with Syria After losing Amara, Iran is now moving weapons across the border
into Iraq in preparation for its plan to take Basra from Muqtada al-Sadr and
his allies (see Juancole.com). Once Iran takes Basra, Iran will then be
positioned to annex southeastern Iraq, a move that would turn Iran into the
superpower of the Middle East.In this context, Iran's ability three weeks ago, with US approval, to
convince the Iraqi parliament to pass legislation authorizing an autonomous
Shia state in southeastern Iraq, modeled after Kurdistan, turned out to be
the event that launched all out civil war in Iraq.Once this Iranian-US partition initiative became law, over the strong
objections of Muqtada al-Sadr and his Sunni allies, Muqtada had two choices
-- submit to the Iranian occupation forces (e.g. the Badr Brigades) and the
US, and go under, or escalate against Iran.As an Iraqi patriot, Muqtada al-Sadr chose to escalate against Iran,
beginning in Amara. Up until now Muqtada as Sadr and the Badr Brigades
agreed to share power in Amara.
Now power sharing is on the way out, for good.In recent weeks, Muqtada has scored three major victories over the Iranian
forces. First, al-Sadr's forces retained control of Amara, along with
several other towns in Southeastern Iraq. By doing so, Muqtada al-Sadr has
blocked the Iranian plan to annex Southeastern Iraq and Basra without a
fight.Second, Muqtada scored a major victory by fending off US threats to attack
Sadr City, the Shia stronghold adjacent to Baghdad . In this regard, Iraq
Prime Minister al-Maliki deserves great credit for denying his approval for
these anti-Sadrist, pro-Iran operations on the part of the US.Third, Sadr scored a major victory, again with the support of PM al-Maliki,
by defeating US efforts to disarm and disband the Mahdi Army while allowing
the pro-Iran Badr Brigades to retain their leading role in Iraq's new
security ministries, the police, and the Iraqi military.Now that a full-scale civil war is underway in Iraq involving pro-partition,
pro-Iran forces (SCIRI and al-Qaeda) on one side and pro-Iraq forces on the
other (Muqtada al-Sadr, Iraq's Sunnis, and Iraq's secularists and leftists)
on the other, the US has only three options.The first option is to favor one side in the civil war and help it win.
This is current US strategy, which is pro-Iran/Badr Brigades. This approach
is infeasible because Congress will not support such a pro-Iran policy and
because the odds favor an Iranian defeat in Iraq.The second strategy is to be neutral. This is almost always impossible, as
the US discovered in earlier peacekeeping deployments in Lebanon and
Yugoslavia. Iraq will not be any different.The third US option is to pull out of Iraq quickly. However, this option is
precluded by the growing Iranian presence in southeastern Iraq and Basra.
Iran is positioning itself to block a US exit from Iraq by controlling
Basra, which is Iraq's only major port, and which is now under the control
of Muqtada al-Sadr and his allies.Iran wants US forces to stay in Iraq to help consolidate Tehran's victory by
suppressing Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sunnis. Iran would strongly prefer that
US forces take on this dirty job while Iranian forces are spared. Moreover,
Iran wants the US forces to stay in Iraq in their role of hostages that
would prevent the US from taking decisive action against Iran's nuclear
weapons program.Given these realities, the way ahead for the US seems clear. The US should
assist Iraq's patriotic forces in consolidating in Basra and driving the
pro-Iran forces out of the city and back into Iran.. By doing so, the US
will secure Iraq's future security and territorial integrity, as well as
protect the most feasible route via Basra for a quick withdrawal of US
troops, if necessary.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 10/23/06
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