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Lagniappe
Scott Sullivan:
Prime Minister Maliki confronts Bush
The game is over. US policy in Iraq, which boosted Iran in Iraq and the
Middle East, has just collapsed, brought down by patriotic Iraqis who
refused to play the role of Quislings for Iran.The collapse of US policy was in full view today as Iraqi Prime minister
Nouri al-Maliki refused to accept a US-imposed timetable for government
reform, and refused to approve a US attack on Sadr City, Muqtada al-Sadr's
base of operations next to Baghdad.Before going further, let US review Ambassador Khalilzad's strategy for
assisting Iran. His first step was to select SCIRI leader Abdul Azziz
al-Hakim as his primary partner in Iraqi politics. In reality, although
Hakim represented only a minority of Iraqis including those who are Iraqi
Shia, he did have the full support of Tehran.Khalilzad's second step was to ignore the SCIRI's Badr Brigades, in reality
pro-Iran death squads that were organized, financed, trained and equipped by
Tehran, as they infiltrated the command structures of the new Iraqi army
and police forces. From this favored position, Iran was able to wage war on
its Iraqi rivals, especially the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr, which
represented the pro-Iraq Shia and was therefore excluded from the high
command of the new Iraqi security forces.In short, Ambassador Khalilzad was creating a Shia "state within a state"
that at the appropriate moment would assert Iran's interests in Iraq.Khalilzad's third step was to promote an Iraqi constitution that, via
support for provincial autonomy, would pave the way for Iranian annexation
of southeastern Iraq including Basra. Such an annexation, in conjunction
with the emergence of Iraqi Kurdistan, also supported by Iran, would
disintegrate the Iraqi state, turn Iran into the superpower of the Middle
East, and ignite civil war between the Kurds and the Sunnis, to the great
benefit of Iran..Khalilzad's fourth step was to confront directly Muqtada al-Sadr and the
Mahdi Army. US forces took the lead. Muqtada al-Sadr, with his forthright
opposition to provincial autonomy, his formidable political base in Basra
and throughout southern Iraq, along with his persistent efforts to assemble
an anti-Iran United Front, posed a mortal threat to Iran.Iran's next step was to attempt a coup in Basra two weeks ago to prepare the
way for Iran's direct annexation of southeastern Iraq, now facilitated by
legislation approved by the Iraqi parliament that was sponsored by Abdul
Azziz al-Hakim and the SCIRI party. Iran's coup attempt in Basra failed,
and was followed by Muqtada al-Sadr's pre-emptive strikes against the Badr
Brigades in Aramah. Bt this time, Prime Minister Maliki essentially sided
with Muqtada al-Sadr.At this point, Khalilzad too escalated and began calling for the immediate
liquidation of the Mahdi Army. While obscuring his own pro-Iran stance and
his support for Iraq's partition, Khalilzad kept the focus on Muqtada
al-Sadr, and by implication Prime Minister Maliki, as the primary threat
faced by Iraq.Ambassador Khalilzad is now in a highly delicate and vulnerable position.
If Khalilzad continues to escalate against Sadr and Maliki he could bring
down the Iraqi government. Yet if Khalilzad pulls back, Sadr and Maliki
will continue to win. The fate of Iraq, Iran and perhaps the entire Middle
East is now in play.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 10/26/06
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