Lagniappe

 

 

Scott Sullivan :
Will House Republicans bail out Pelosi in Iraq?

Rep. Nancy Pelosi is not only lined up to be the first female Speaker of the
House, she is lined up to be the next President of the United States, well
before 2008. In fact, a good case can be made she is already the acting
president given the faltering performance of President Bush and the
indications that James Baker and his commission are actually hurting
President Bush (and by extension Rep. Pelosi) not helping him.

James baker is hurting President Bush because he will give no advice, or he
will give bad advice. By giving no advice, Baker will have squandered
valuable time as well as a unique opportunity to shape a bi-partisan impetus
for change.

Baker may also give bad advice. The only two serious options under
discussion by the Baker Commission are troop redeployments within Iraq and
to neighboring countries, and diplomacy via consultations with neighboring
states. Neither option holds promise. This is because what is underway in
Iraq is not a civil war (although it looks like one) but a proxy war for
control of Iraq between Iran on one side, assisted by US policy, and Syria
and the Sunni Arab states on the other. Iran has control over southern Iraq
and Basra, while the Sunni Arabs have control over Anbar Province in Iraq's
west, which is one third of the country, and Baghdad.

The US cannot redeploy troops even within Iraq without upsetting Iraq's
delicate political-military equilibrium as expressed above. For example,
pulling forces from Baghdad could tempt both Iran and al-Qaeda, which is
based in Anbar province, to move into Baghdad. The resulting conflict would
make today's bloodletting in Baghdad look minor in comparison.

Moreover, the US cannot simply redeploy troops to the Kurdish areas, as is
often suggested, because this would effectively partition Iraq into three
separate states -- Kurdish, Shia, and Sunni. This is a formula for a
massive civil war, beginning in Baghdad, Kirkuk, and Mosul, that would drag
in Iraq's neighbors. No one in the world supports this option, with the
exception of Senator Joseph Biden.

Likewise, the US cannot easily redeploy US troops to neighboring countries.
Which ones? Kuwait will refuse. Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan would
accept them but only if the US agrees to take on Iran in Iraq, as they
intend to do. The US could station troops in Iran (US Ambassador to Iraq
Zalmay Khalilzad and Robert Gates, who are pro-Iran, would approve), but
Congress would reject this option out of hand.

The same difficulties and complexities would bog down any US proposed
regional negotiations on Iraq.

In short, the two major options under consideration by the Baker Commission
are non-starters. This unpleasant reality leaves President Bush and
Speaker-elect Pelosi trapped in the same lifeboat, with short rations and
one thousand miles of empty sea to cross.

President Bush is in the more favorable position. He has the option of
stepping back and accepting the likely advice of Baker's commission to stay
the course in Iraq. At that point, Bush would be in a war of attrition with
a Democratic Congress that would "redeploy," i.e., withdraw, US troops from
Iraq regardless of the boost that decision would give to the Iranian
imperialists. For the next hundred years, Rep. Pelosi and the Democratic
Party would be tarred as the Iranian Party, regardless of the fact that it
was President Bush who actually turned Iraq over to Iran in the first place
by overthrowing Saddam Hussein.

The point is that Rep. Pelosi is the perfect "fall guy' for the sins of
Baker and the Bush family. This explains why Baker is running out the clock
with his report. The latest word is that he will not release it until early
2008! This is out and out, pro-Iran sabotage, since it is Iran which is
gaining from current US policy, not Syria and the Sunni states, who are
losing big time.

The US does not have six days, much less sixty days, to move away from the
Bush Administration's pro-Iran policy in Iraq and the region. Rep. Pelosi
will have allies to meet this challenge. To be specific, she can look to
this Congress, not the next, all of whose members are under the gun, like
her, to salvage US interests in Iraq. Who knows, she may even be able to
look to President Bush for support. Stranger things have happened in
politics. What do the House Republicans have to say about all this?

 

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 11/15/06

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