Lagniappe

Elvia Gomez :
Alberto Garrido: "A new society follows the transition"

Abiding by his rigorous follow-up for years of the revolution heralded by President Hugo Chávez, substantiated in an extensive literature, Alberto Garrido wants to make it very clear that he has not a crystal ball. He works on assumptions and there is a justification for it. "If anything is bold, that is thinking for Chávez."

Venezuelans, Garrido notes, are immersed in a process that involves much more than the electoral scenario. "This process defines systems." In addition, it sails over troubled waters, where the risk of dismissing the election results and subsequent clashes mark the outcome.

"When (single opposition candidate) Rosales votes, he is voting within the framework of representative democracy, and when Chávez votes, he is voting in the context of revolutionary democracy. These are quite opposite concepts."

The scholar clarified that the Bolivarian revolution is a national-international indivisible unit. "Geopolitics for Chávez is more important than any election. In the absence of a multi-polar world, there cannot be revolution in Venezuela. It seems to me that it is not as simple as stating that A or B wins."

Nevertheless, if ratified as President, Hugo Chávez will announce officially the end of the transition, Garrido fears.

"In 1991-1992, in a paper entitled "Going off the labyrinth," Chávez postulated a scheme similar to the one we are experiencing nowadays. This was discussed with MBR-200 leaders. It was said that the revolutionary process had two phases -'transition' and the creation of a 'new society.' That is, a different society, based on civilian-military unity. A new way of living was laid down, and the territorial guard will be powered indeed."

"Chávez takes the issue with western values and the US way of living. The point is whether many Venezuelans, including Chávez' supporters, are willing to shift their lives. Will Chávez set up gradually this new society? Or will he resort to force? He is talking about leaving capitalism. This is not nonsense. Chávez' wish and judgment will play a crucial role on the success of the changes to implement such process."

"The Simón Bolívar National Project has been defined as the Socialism of the 21st Century. According to Chávez, it will stretch from 2007 to 2021. We are somewhat acquainted with the particulars of this revolutionary process -global multi-polarity, social equality, socialized education and medicine, and a much more heterodox economic performance. There is now a hybrid where the so-called endogenous centers cohabit with the classical capitalist economy. Chávez will try to make it disappear gradually. I do not see here a Cuban-like process."

"In the political-ideological area, everything will be clearer than in the economic-social ambit. It will pull the springs that possibly are not mature enough now in order to, for instance, understand the issue of private property and its difference from state or common property. Chávez is very pragmatic. He may have strategic goals, but knows how to put the brake or turn around. Anyhow, he does not leave the main road. He stated, 'There may be a thousand tactics, but there is only one strategy.'"

"The Parliament will follow Chávez' guidelines and the single party, based on the concept of a single leader, will prevent any further discussion on decisions."

Concerning the possibility that, following ratification, Chávez has to counter an organized, strong opposition, Garrido answered conclusively, "this does not exist nowadays. It is just unified around Rosales. But I think that there are unexpected events."

"In the Venezuelan case, I think that the global factor is very significant. No analysis of the national context can be made by taking aside the international ambit, particularly for such an important country as Venezuela in the energy business. To what extent will (Brazilian President Luiz Inácio) Lula (Da Silva) bolster Chávez as a regional ally? And to what extent will Brazil allow for a revolutionary process in Venezuela in the event of feeling that it is reaching its boundaries? Also, there is an embryo of an anti-Chávez axis that, at least rhetorically, (Peruvian President) Alan García wants to lead."

"Saying that Lula came to back Chávez is simplistic. No, Lula came to make a deal in strategic matters. For this reason, he faces criticism of the dissent in his country. Lula came because he realized that the attention of the United States is focused on the Middle East, putting Latin America aside. And Lula is paving the way for Brazil. But he does not want to do it by confronting Chávez."

"But also, there is still the political definition in Ecuador. It can curb Phase II of Plan Colombia. And (Colombian President Álvaro) Uribe has been discussing it as he is very alarmed at a potential change of administration in the United States. There is the Chilean reaction to the Venezuelan-Bolivian military alliance and also they are very upset with the gas issue. Here Peru goes, trying to find a niche, offering gas to Brazil and Chile. There is Argentina changing stances… And Venezuela is involved in all of it."

It remains to be seen whether the results of the election on December 3rd will be accepted, says Alberto Garrido.

Elvia Gomez is a journalist with Venezuela's El Universal, Alberto Garrido is the autor of various books on Chavez. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

Editor's Note: This commentary was originally published by EL Universal, on Nov. 23, 2006 ( Translated by Conchita Delgado -cdelgado@eluniversal.com). Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers. All comments posted and published on Petroleumworld, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of Petroleumworld. All comments expressed are private comments and do not necessary reflect the view of this website. All comments are posted and published without liability to Petroleumworld.

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Petroleumworld News 11/24/06

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