Lagniappe

Sunday Herald - Scotland:
Heir to the revolution

LAST WEEK it was Ecuador, where leftist Rafael Correa won the presidential elections, this week it seems almost certain that Venezuelans will re-elect Hugo Chavez Frias as their president for a third time. And if he does win today's vote, it will set the seal on a year that, with a few exceptions, has seen a marked shift to the left across Latin America. But while much of the new wave of 21st century leftist governments are of a somewhat paler shade of vermilion than their Marxist forerunners, it is Venezuela, where Chavez - with the slogan "Red" - has been pursuing a virulent anti-US line that Washington will be watching closely this week.

Chavez loves to goad the Bush administration, which has looked on helplessly while he has feted a long list of Washington's bte noires, including Iranian president Ahmed Ahmadinejad, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and - most upsetting of all - Cuba's Fidel Castro. Chavez has often referred to Castro as his political father and, so sure is he of winning, he has already promised to dedicate his electoral triumph to the man the CIA allegedly tried to kill 638 times.

At the Hotel Golden Rainbow Maremares in Puerto La Cruz, things are "pretty quiet" says the manager, Jose. But with Venezuelans focusing on today's election - and worrying about a potentially violent aftermath - it isn't surprising that the Maremares resort, where Chavez held talks with Castro last year, is finding it hard to fill its rooms this weekend.

Over the past few weeks, thousands of Venezuelans - supporters of Chavez and his rival, Manuel Rosales, governor of the comparatively wealthy province of Zulia - have been turning out to attend huge meetings in support of their candidate. The local press, which is among the most partisan in Latin America, has reported that more than one and a half million attended a recent rally for Rosales. Chavez, who last year sought to pass legislation aimed at taking the private, mostly pro-opposition media down a peg or two, has frequently claimed that he can muster up similar numbers, but the opposition suggests he achieves this only by bussing in help who are offered free transport and a hot meal.

However, Chavez, who is aiming to win a comfortable mandate which could last another six years (although he has frequently said that he plans to stay in office until 2021 to accomplish his goals) insists he doesn't need to pay people to attend his rallies.

It is the success, he says, of his self-styled Bolivarian revolution - named after Simon Bolivar, the 19th century hero of Latin American independence - that has attracted many of the country's poorer inhabitants to his cause. And in this large, oil-rich corner of South America, particularly among the shanty towns or barrios of the capital, Caracas, there are many who will testify to that.

Since coming to power in 1998 (six years after leading a doomed coup against a government headed by Carlos Perez) Chavez, a former colonel who still wears military uniform on occasions, has pursued a particularly messianic style of socialism. He has presided over an incredibly ambitious programme of reforms, aiming to tackle age-old problems affecting the country's large underclass.

The Chavez government over the past eight years has set about improving conditions in the barrios by piping drinking water, improving sewerage, and, with the assistance of thousands of Cuban doctors and teachers, promoting literacy and healthcare.

And in a move that has been less well-documented, Chavez's government has sought to boost grassroots access to culture, particularly music. Venezuelan music is now required to be played in equal measure on state-supported radio stations, leading, says the former UK cultural attach, Gloria Carnevale to a boom for musicians across the country Alongside these much-needed and much-heralded improvements, however, lie the inevitable tales of inefficiency and corruption. In 2002, following a nation-wide strike and an aborted coup attempt, which saw him briefly deposed and replaced by Pedro Carmona, Chavez sacked almost 20,000 striking workers from the state-owned oil business, Petroleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa). Once the dust had settled, and with almost all the senior management purged, the company had to rely on relatively inexperienced staff to kick-start production. Some industry experts, many of whom are among those former Pdvsa workers who lost their jobs, believe that Pdvsa has been emasculated.

But the country's vast oil reserves continue to ensure that Chavez is cushioned, at least for the time being, against almost anything the US, which supported the coup effort in 2002, can throw at him.

A third win for Chavez would almost certainly see him taking a harder line against the opposition, which will further polarise tensions within and outside the country. Chavez, who can be charming and playful, is also known for using any occasion, but especially if there are television cameras present, to launch personal attacks on individuals. The US and the opposition - which has been highlighting Chavez's refusal to accept a public debate in the run-up to the vote - charge him with being a demagogue.

In addition to cracking down on large private media corporations which, were generally supportive of the 2002 coup against him, Chavez has also singled out journalists, both national and international, as enemies of the state.

It is this pettiness and unpredictability that so infuriates the US American diplomats worked hard behind the scenes at the United Nations last month to prevent Venezuela from winning a seat at the UN Security Council. Eventually, a compromise candidate, Panama, was found, dealing a major blow to Chavez's dream of a place at the top table.

In the long run, it may turn out that in excluding Venezuela the US will find it harder to engage further down the line. Both countries make much of the fact that the other is irrelevant. Chavez calls Bush "the devil", Bush calls Chavez a dictator.

The US has close links with the opposition (which also approached the British Labour Party regarding sending members to observe today's vote) and Chavez will continue to seek alliances with any states that can help him thumb his nose at Washington. At times, it seems that his new best friendships are predicated more on the extent to which he can rile the US State Department than the tangible benefits on offer for Venezuela.

But of course Chavez is also a shrewd operator and his agreement with Russia, now the largest supplier of arms to Venezuela, has this week resulted in a deal for 100,000 Kalashnikovs and orders for numerous helicopters.

What neighbouring Colombia, the region's closest US ally, will make of this remains to be seen. Colombia's conservative president, Alvaro Uribe (himself re-elected earlier this year, and one of a handful of right-leaning candidates to buck the swing to the left) described Chavez to the Sunday Herald earlier this year as "my friend". But the ongoing problems along the countries' shared border have plagued relations between the two nations for many years and show no signs of abating.

And while the US embassy in Caracas has warned its citizens to stockpile provisions in case violence breaks out, the Venezuelan government has responded angrily accusing the US of meddling. The army is, however, on standby and so is the presidential plane.

But not, as the opposition would doubtless hope, to take Chavez into exile, but simply to enable him to nip across the Caribbean to join Castro in Cuba as his delayed birthday celebrations draw to close. Leaving so soon is just one more sign that Chavez feels confident that another term in office is in the bag. And while Chavez likes to give the impression that he doesn't need anybody's approval, his regular visits to the ailing Cuban commandante smack of a desire, perhaps, to be officially anointed as heir to the position of regional US antagonist-in-chief.

After all, if anyone shares the Cuban's revolutionary motto "Hasta La Victoria Siempre" - Ever Onward to Victory - it is Chavez. At least, perhaps, until 2021.

 

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Petroleumworld News 12/04/06

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