Lagniappe

 

 

Scott Sullivan : Hakim will sink Iran

President Bush has found the foolproof way to induce regime change in Iran.
Bush's stealth policy on Iranian regime change is to hand over Iraq and its
gigantic problems to Iran, with Lebanon thrown in for good measure.
Ahmadinejad's regime in Iran will likely sink under the burden of
peacekeeping and economic rehabilitation in Iraq.

In other words, President Bush's decision to turn Iraq over to Iran is will
not resolve the Iraq crisis but will weaken and possibly sink the
Ahmadinejad regime, for the following reasons.

First, Iran lacks the appropriate moderate leadership to direct Iraq (Iran's
president admires Adolph Hitler); the resources to underwrite Iraq's
economic recovery, especially when global oil prices decline; the experience
in building multi-ethnic political coalitions, as are essential for
governance in Iraq;. and the practical experiences to act as lead
peacekeeper in Iraq. In this sense, as Iraq's problems begin to drag Iran
down, Iran could be the first victim of the US decision to shift
responsibility and accountability for the Iraq crisis to Iran.

Second, Iran's lead role in Iraq will ignite an intra-Shia civil war in Iraq
(Sadrists vs. Hakim and the Badr Brigade), which could easily spread to Iran
itself.

Third, in the same fashion, Iran's support for Iraqi Kurdish separatism, as
exemplified by the Hakim-Talabani Alliance, will encourage Iran's own Kurds
to push for independence. Iran could soon succumb to the same ethnic
separatist pressures it is encouraging in Iraq.

Fourth, President Bush neglected to get the prior agreement of the Arab
states prior to assigning the Iraq portfolio to Iran. As you recall, before
the US gave Syria permission to assume peacekeeping responsibility for
Lebanon in the 1980's, the US was careful to obtain a green light from the
Arab states. As a result, Syria was able to undertake its peacekeeping
mandate in Lebanon with a relatively free hand. This will not be the case
for Iran in Iraq.

Fifth, Saudi Arabia, which borders Iraq, will be especially enraged at
Iran's takeover or partition of Iraq and will support Iraq's resistance to
Iran. Saudi Arabia is likely to equip, train, and arms Iraq's resistance,
as sources close to the Saudi have made clear in recent days. Other Arab
states are also certain to resist Iran's occupation in Iraq and will aid the
Iraqi resistance.

Sixth, Turkey, which borders Iraq and which is obsessed with preventing the
emergence of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq or anywhere else on the
planet, will also be enraged. Turkey has a substantial military on the
border with Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkish forces will cross the border into Iraq
in an instant, as they have done before, regardless of Iranian concerns. In
the meantime, Turkey will be a natural ally of Syria and the Arabs against
the Hakim-Talabani regime. Again, Turkey and Iran are now on a collision
course over Iraq, thanks to President Bush, with Turkey as the far more
powerful adversary.

Seventh, the US has removed three important obstacles to Arab unity with
this decision to turn Iraq over to Iran. As a result, the Arab states will
rapidly mobilize against this US decision. The US has downgraded the
Palestinian issue and place Iraq stability and territorial integrity at the
top of the Arab agenda, where it will remain until Iran's threat to Iraq has
abated. The US has substantially increased the Persian threat to the
region. The US has substantially increased the Kurdish threat to the
region.

Finally, as confirmed today by GEN Abizaid, the Iranian government, not
private groups in Iran, is the major foreign subversive force in Iraq. Iran
is financing, recruiting, training, arming, and assigning missions to the
Badr Brigade death squads. The Iranian officials direct these attacks are
the same officials who are providing assurances to President Bush that such
attacks will stop. Iran's switch to good behavior in Iraq is unlikely. As
a result of ongoing Iranian subversion in Iraq, as Iran consolidates
control, Iraq's economic instability and uncertainty will grow, as will the
costs of Iraq as a captive state of Iran.

 

 

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 12/06/06

Copyright©2006 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved

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