Lagniappe

 

Scott Sulivan :
Russia versus Iran/US in Turkmenistan

 

In a matter of weeks, as Iran's influence spreads, Russian
President/dictator Vladimir Putin is taking up the US role as power broker
in the Middle East. As a result, Russia and Iran are facing confrontation in
the Middle East. Now, in a major new crisis with the demise of President
Niyazov in Turkmenistan, Russia and Iran are facing confrontation in Central
Asia. What is called the "Great Game" between Russia and Iran for control
of Central Asia's vast energy resources is underway with this political
transition in Turkmenistan.

Good. Antagonism between Russia and Iran is an essential precondition for
international stability. The US cannot or will not contain Iran. In fact,
the US increasingly seems comfortable in the role of Iran's junior partner.
The US is running interference for Iran in the Middle East, Iraq, and
Central Asia, while Iran consolidates for the long term gains.

To put it another way, US appeasement of Iran in the Middle East and Central
Asia forces Russia to confront Iran. In this regard, the crises in Lebanon,
the Palestinian Authority, and Iraq have claimed Putin's attention in recent
weeks after Iran scored gains, unopposed by the US. President Putin stepped
in by inviting Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora and Syrian president Assad to
Moscow last week for immediate consultations.

Russia was advancing in the Middle East after years of being absent as a
major player. President Putin did so because he was unhappy with Iran's
adventurism, as evidenced by Iran's support for confrontational policies by
Hamas and Hezbollah.

Moreover, Syria, who has long been Russia's closest ally in the region, was
telling Putin that Iran was fast becoming a threat to Iraq and the Arab
states in general. Syria's President Bashar al-Assad warned Putin against
Iran's presence in Iraq and called for Arab solidarity against Iran.

While the US remained passive, Russia was emerging as the counterweight to
Iran in the Middle East. Russia was already the counterweight to Iran in
Central Asia. Under Russian prodding, Iran was excluded earlier this year
from full membership (and therefore security guarantees) in the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), Central Asia's NATO.

The financial stakes for Russia and Iran are very high in Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan is a major supplier of natural gas to Gazprom, who in turn
supplies Ukraine. In this context, the loss of Russsian access to
Turkmenistan's natural gas would be seen a major national security threat
for Putin.

As far as Iran is concerned, a breakthrough in relation with Turkmenistan
would significantly weaken Russia's entire policy of containing Iran in
Central Asia. The US in recent years has been acting in tandem with Iran's
policy of opening up Turkmenistan. The US has established a major military
base in Turkmenistan, much to Russia's discomfort.

Will Russia stand alone with a policy designed to contain Iran in Iraq and
Central Asia? The good news is that Turkey is a natural partner for Russia
in a Contain Iran policy. Like Russia, Turkey sees great danger from Iran's
presence in Iraq. Iran, with US support, is behind Kurdish aspirations for
an independent state. Turkey, along with Russia, views the an independent
Kurdistan and breakup of Iraq into two or more states as bringing disaster
to the Middle East.

Turkey, in short, like Russia, is on a collision course with Iran. To
contain Iran, Turkey and Russia are already coordinating policy on Iraq.
President Putin and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan also need to coordinate
policy on the Middle East and Central Asia. Turkey should offer Russia full
support as the political transition in Turkmenistan unfolds. Iran and the
US will be making mischief there, but a Russian-Turkish coalition would
secure Turkmenistan and Central Asia, in a major setback for Iran.
Moreover, Russia and Turkey should not despair of gaining eventual US
support for a Contain Iran policy, even in Turkmenistan.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 12/27/06

Copyright©2006 Scott Sullivan. All rights reserved

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