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What
comes next for Venezuela?
By Greg Morsbach
Now
that the dust has settled after President Hugo Chavez's landslide
victory, there is much speculation as to how Venezuela will change
in the next few years under his leadership.
Chavez has been engaging in long-term thinking
Mr
Chavez has openly talked of his third term in office as "a
new phase" in his long term project for the Latin American
country.
He
has made no secret during or after his election campaign that
his "Bolivarian Revolution", named after the 19th century
South American independence leader Simon Bolivar, is heading towards
socialism.
In
the next 14 years, Mr Chavez wants to turn Venezuela from a capitalist
into a socialist society.
The
strategic roadmap to help him do that has already been drawn up
and is called "The Simon Bolivar National Plan".
A
pro-Chavez member of parliament, Carlos Escarra, told the BBC
he has been appointed personally by Mr Chavez to prepare sweeping
reforms of the nation's constitution.
Name
change
Mr
Escarra, who is now part of a presidential commission on constitutional
reform, said: "One of the proposals is to change the name
of our country from Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to Socialist
and Bolivarian Republic.
"This
would better reflect the changes that are happening here. But
there are also more basic changes to our constitution that are
being planned.
"For
example, we want to eliminate the old, bureaucratic structures
of the state and replace them with grass roots institutions."
Mr Chavez has often talked of how he intends to stay in power
until the year 2021 to implement his socialist project.
To
remain in office for that long, Mr Chavez and his followers want
to change the constitution in order to remove the limits on how
many times he can be re-elected in succession.
"That's
definitely part of the plan for next year," said Hector Navarro,
a senior director for Mr Chavez's election campaign team.
"Remember
that President Chavez was re-elected by a wide margin. So that
gives him the popular mandate and legitimacy to make big changes."
However,
any changes to Venezuela's constitution must first be approved
with a two-thirds majority in parliament, and then in a nationwide
referendum.
But
this should not pose too much of a problem for Venezuela's left-wing
leader as parliament is entirely run by his loyalists and a large
segment of the population is on record as supporting him.
Constitutional
reform
December
2007 has been touted as a possible date for a referendum on the
constitution, giving the president plenty of time to prepare the
details and seek popular support.
There
will be other changes in addition to the constitutional reform,
according to many respected analysts.
Most
predict that Venezuela's private economy will disappear as we
know it.
Orlando
Ochoa, a leading economist, forecasts that the free market economy
will be replaced by a socialist model where the state will have
much greater control over the private sector.
"The
state will regulate prices and profits in the private sector,"
Mr Ochoa said.
Transformations
Alberto
Garrido, an independent analyst, is certain that in the next 14
years parts of the economy will simply vanish.
"Private
health care and private education will be first in line to be
scrapped by the government as part of its drive towards socialism,"
said Mr Garrido.
"The
whole country will be geared towards the motto: one leader - one
party - one ideology," he added.
One
proposal that is on the table for next year is to create a single
political party to represent the Chavistas, the name given to
Mr Chavez's supporters.
Remember that President Chavez was re-elected by a wide margin.
So that gives him the popular mandate and legitimacy to make big
changes
Viewpoints
on Mr Chavez
Currently
there are a string of parties supporting Mr Chavez - each with
their own leaders and party hierarchy.
In
terms of foreign relations it is almost certain that the Chavez
government will opt for continuity: there is very little appetite
in Caracas for a rapprochement with Washington and the Bush administration
at present.
Despite
the best efforts of the State Department to build bridges following
his election victory, there was a frosty reception from Venezuela's
firebrand leader.
He
dismissed Washington's diplomatic overtures as "insincere".
"They
sometimes hold an olive branch out to us. But there are always
strings attached. And we, as a sovereign state, cannot accept
conditions," Mr Chavez told reporters here at a recent news
conference.
However,
senior Venezuelan diplomats privately admitted they could envisage
a completely different relationship with a Democrat in the White
House, particularly with somebody from the Clinton family.
No
scrutiny
Venezuela's
Deputy Foreign Minister for North American Affairs, Jorge Valero,
told the BBC "in the next few years, there will be a lot
more cooperation between our government and the nations of the
southern hemisphere".
Venezuela
is also trying to substitute the US with China as its number one
commercial partner.
"The
idea for the next few years for Venezuela to sell all the crude
oil it presently shipping to the US to the Chinese instead,"
said Alberto Garrido.
The
ultimate goal is to become completely economically independent
from the US because Mr Chavez does not want to be a leader who
is at the beck and call of the political and economic establishment
of North America.
He
does not wish to have his democratic credentials, his style of
government and his socialist project scrutinised internationally.
Greg
Morsbach is
a journalist with BBC News. Its views are not necessarily those
of PETROLEUMWORLD.
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