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Latin America: A new world axis of power?

BBC

Latin America map of 2006 elections

By BBC

Latin America is buzzing with election fever as six of the region's most populous countries - Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador go to the polls in the coming months.

The elections follow key polls in Mexio, Colombia, Peru, Honduras, Bolivia, Chile, Haiti and Costa Rica and come at a key political period for the region following a recent swing towards left-wing parties.

Today's Latin America is a very different region from that of 20-30 years ago.

Electoral politics are reasonably consolidated in most countries, and there are no military governments but is it all change for the better?

Power gamble on Mexico's streets

By Daniel Lak
BBC News, Mexico City

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador may have lost the vote counting after the 2 July presidential election in Mexico. But he is still the big winner on the streets of the capital city.

Hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic Lopez Obrador supporters crammed into the square known as Zocalo, in the heart of Mexico City's historic central district on Saturday.

Mexico City is Mr Lopez Obrador's most passionate constituency

There was no empty space, save behind a few huge banners that blocked the view of the stage.

Men, women and children cheered wildly and waved yellow flags. They chanted the name of the man they believe won last week's election.

"Lopez Obrador, Lopez Obrador, Lopez Obrador," rang over the shops and offices in the ornate downtown.

The message from the man on the stage: "We did win the election and nothing short of a full recount of all the ballots will prove it."

In a speech lasting more than an hour, Mr Lopez Obrador told the crowd that the vote count was fixed.

"We are going to ask that they clean up the elections. We are going to ask that they count all the votes - vote-by-vote, poll-by-poll," he said to wide applause.

The case for fraud would be made this Monday to the seven-judge Federal Election Tribunal and the Mexican Supreme Court, he added.

Lopez Obrador is insisting all votes be recounted

In the meantime, he called for more rallies and a "national march for democracy" from voting districts to the capital in the coming weeks.

Political analysts say a full recount is not part of Mexican law and Mr Lopez Obrador needs to prove his street power to emphasise his demands for all 41 million votes to be counted again.

His opponent, Felipe Calderon of the right-of-centre National Action Party, won the election with a margin of fewer than 245,000 votes, according to the Federal Electoral Tribunal.

Divided voters

Mexican presidential elections are first-past-the-post, so Mr Calderon's victory is legal.

But, as the rally in Mexico City demonstrates, the electorate is deeply divided.

We are tired of the rich having everything and the poor having nothing

Belasario Cruz, farmer

Most of Mr Calderon's votes came from Mexico's industrialized north and its middle and upper classes.

The poorer south of the country and urban neighbourhoods, where poverty or trade-unionism can be found, opted for Mr Lopez Obrador.

"We are ready to do whatever is necessary," said Belasario Cruz, 32, a farmer from Mr Lopez Obrador's home state of Tabasco, in southeast Mexico.

"We are tired of the rich having everything and the poor having nothing."

Truce unlikely

For his part, Mr Calderon has reached out to his opponents and invited them into his cabinet.

But as long as street protests and legal challenges take place, that's not an invitation that will be well regarded in Mr Lopez Obrador's camp.

Analysts warn that Mexico's young democracy could be in danger

For several days now, Mexican political analysts have been warning about the dangers of division to the country's young democracy.

Some say he should be thinking of the next elections in six years' time, and preparing for victory then.

"His political stock would increase greatly for 2012" if he finds a way to concede defeat gracefully, political analyst Oscar Aguilar said.

But after a hugely successful political rally in the heart of his most passionate constituency - Mexico City - Mr Lopez Obrador can be expected to fight on.

He is warning his supporters to keep their protests peaceful.

But Mexico can look forward to weeks of uncertainty and disruption while this intense political drama plays out.


Year of elections
How Latin America's political landscape could be redrawn

Mexico

Date: 2 July 2006
What is elected: President and congress
Term: 6 years
Current president: Vicente Fox

Situation: Sunday's election resulted in such a tight vote that the electoral authorities are now reviewing vote tallies to determne the winner. The final result may not be known for several days.

Left-leaning former Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is trailing just 0.64% behind Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party (Pan) who has promised to maintain the pro-market policies of President Fox.

BBC Latin America analyst James Painter says that Mr Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) would be unlikely to follow a radical economic agenda, as the Mexican economy is now so tied to that of the US.

Honduras

Date: 27 November 2005
What was elected: President and congress
Term: 4 years
Elected president: Jose Manuel Zelaya

Situation: Ruling-party candidate, Porfirio Lobo, from the centre-right National Party admitted defeat 10 days after the election, when final official results were still unavailable. This has cleared the way for Jose Manuel Zelaya, of the centre-right Liberal Party, to become the president. He is due to take office on 27 January.

Poverty and crime - conducted mainly by street gangs known as maras - are the main challenges for the next president. The incumbent, Ricardo Maduro has implemented economic reforms in return for credit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but Honduran society is still rife with economic inequality.

Hondurans also elected 128 deputies to the single-chamber Congress.

Nicaragua

Date: 5 November 2006
What is elected: President and congress
Term: 5 years
Current president: Enrique Bolanos

Situation: US-backed President Bolanos has been increasingly isolated since he led an anti-corruption drive against his predecessor and former ally, Arnoldo Aleman, since convicted of fraud. Mr Bolanos' own Liberal Party turned against him in congress and joined forces with former rivals, the left-wing Sandinistas. The election is seen as an opportunity to put an end to this pact, which has dominated Nicaraguan politics in recent years.

Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega plans to run for president for the fifth time, while the Liberal Party's candidate is Jorge Rizo. Observers say that the US is concerned about the possibility of Mr Ortega returning to power.

The Sandinistas were voted out of office in the 1990 elections, following a 10-year civil war against the US-backed Contras.

Haiti

Date: 7 February 2006
What was elected: President and parliament
Term: 5 years
New president: Rene Preval

Situation: Rene Preval was sworn in as Haiti's president in May.
He was declared the winner in February more than a week after the vote which was marred by allegations of fraud.

The election was the first since President Jean-Bertrand Aristide was ousted in February 2004 and had been delayed a number of times.

Mr Preval has promised to reconcile Haiti's divided society and mend the economy.

Despite the presence of peacekeepers, the country has continued to be blighted by political and criminal violence and instability.


Costa Rica

Date: 5 February 2006
What was elected: President
Term: 4 years
New president: Oscar Arias
Outgoing president: Abel Pacheco

Situation: Nobel Peace Prize winner Oscar Arias was sworn in as Costa Rica's president for the second time in May, after winning a close-fought election.
He vowed to stabilise the economy and government with a commitment to democracy and human rights.

The result was made clear nearly a month after the election, when a manual recount confirmed Mr Arias as the frontrunner and Otton Solis lost a series of legal challenges.

Opinion polls had predicted Mr Arias would win easily, but correspondents say his proposal to ratify a regional free trade agreement with the US may have cost him votes.

Venezuela

Date: 3 December 2006
What is elected: President
Term: 6 years
Current president: Hugo Chavez

Situation: President Chavez, who has survived a coup, protests, strikes and a referendum on his rule, is the subject of both adulation and loathing among his divided electorate. He says he wants to create a new form of socialism and has pursued populist policies. The opposition accuses him of trying to emulate Cuba's communist system. However, it has not managed to unite behind a strong candidate that could challenge him in the election.

Mr Chavez has sought to widen Venezuela's influence in Latin America to counter that of Washington. High oil prices have strengthened Mr Chavez's position as they have helped Venezuela - the world's fifth oil exporter - to grow robustly. He enjoys close ties with Cuba and Iran, which attract US or international disapproval.

BBC Latin America analyst James Painter says President Chavez will be hard to beat if oil prices remain high and the opposition continues to be in disarray.

Colombia

Date:28 May 2006
What is elected: President and Congress (elections on 12 March)
Term: 4 years
Current president: Alvaro Uribe

Situation: Conservative President Alvaro Uribe won a landslide victory. Mr Uribe argued that he needed four more years to implement his tough policies against armed groups and drug-traffickers.

Mr Uribe, a close ally of Washington in its fight against drugs, has succeeded in putting the main left-wing rebel group, the Farc, on the back foot, which is one of the main reasons for his popularity. But the civil conflict has created a huge social convulsion - there are two million internally displaced people.

Colombians elected 199 deputies and 114 senators in March.

Ecuador

Date: October 2006
What is elected: President and congress
Term: 4 years
Current president: Alfredo Palacio (interim)

Situation: Alfredo Palacio's predecessor, Lucio Gutierrez, was ousted by Congress in April 2005 amid violent protests.

Among the main candidates hoping to succeed Mr Palacio, who was Mr Gutierrez's vice-president and has no political base are:

Socialist Leon Roldos Aguilera
Businessman Alvaro Noboa
Cynthia Viteri, from the Social Christian Party
Rafael Correa, an economist
Opinion polls suggest Mr Roldos is slightly ahead. Analysts say that a government led by him would tend to be leftist in matters of security or politics, but more right-wing when it comes to managing the economy.

Peru

Date: Run-off 4 June 2006 (first round 9 April 2006)
What is elected: President and congress
Term: 5 years
New president: Alan Garcia

Situation: Centre-left candidate Alan Garcia beat nationalist Ollanta Humala convincingly in a run-off after a bitterly fought campaign.

It is a remarkable political comeback for Mr Garcia, whose first stint in office from 1985-1990 was marked by rampant inflation and guerrilla violence. He says he has learned from his mistakes.

Peru's economy has seen sustained growth under the outgoing President Alejandro Toledo, mainly due to high world prices for its major exports of copper and gold. But Mr Garcia faces big challenges to tackle widespread poverty and high unemployment.

He also needs to united a politically divided country. His support was concentrated in Lima and along the northern coast, while Mr Humala did well in the impoverished southern areas.

Bolivia

Date: 18 December 2005
What was elected: President and congress
Term: 5 years
New president: Evo Morales

Situation: Left-wing candidate Evo Morales won a historic 54% of the vote, making him the country's first indigenous president. He has described the election as the beginning of a new era for Bolivia and the end of 500 years of injustice against his people. An Aymara Indian and coca farmers' leader, Mr Morales is a close ideological ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Evo Morales is against US-backed coca eradication programmes and seeks some form of national control over Bolivia's huge gas reserves. However, analysts say he will face serious obstacles as his plans are bound to provoke opposition from Washington and Bolivia's business sector.

Chile

Date: 15 January 2006 (run-off)
What was elected: President
Term: 4 years
New president:Michelle Bachelet

Situation: Centre-left candidate Michelle Bachelet beat conservative businessman Sebastian Pinera in a second round of voting to become Chile's first woman president.

A single parent, Ms Bachelet is a surprising choice for a country usually regarded as being one of the most socially conservative in the region.

Ms Bachelet - a member of the governing Concertacion coalition - is likely to continue the pro-free market policies of Chile's economy, generally viewed as the most successful in the region.

Brazil

Date: 1 October 2006
What is elected: President, governors, deputies (federal and state) and senators
Term: 4 years
Current president: Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

Situation: A scandal over campaign funding and bribes for votes in congress has dominated public life in Brazil over the past year. The revelations led to the resignation of the leader of the ruling Workers' Party and several party officials. Lula has not been directly implicated and it is not clear what impact the scandal will have on his re-election chances as he is still ahead in the opinion polls.

The White House sees the Brazilian president as a 'moderate', a potential ally to deter more radical left-wing politicians in Latin America such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

Lula's main rival in the election is the centrist ex-governor of Sao Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin.

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Petroleumworld 07/09/06

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