Dumb
and Dumber
By Andy Webb-Vidal
What really ought to concern us about Hugo Chávez
is not his strident anti-Americanism, his burgeoning friendship
with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or his flirtation with nuclear
technology, but his dangerous incompetence.
When Hugo Met Mahmoud: You had me at “Death to America!”Unlike
the security-weary Venezuelans queuing at Caracas’s Simón
Bolívar International Airport for a regular American
Airlines connection to Miami, travelers booked on the weekly
Iran Air Flight 745 to Tehran enjoy a refreshingly different
experience. On Saturday afternoons, the Iran Air passengers
are whisked past the X-ray machines and immigration control
straight to their seats. Similar consideration is provided
to those on the Friday inbound flight, the so-called “ghost
plane”: no passport stamps, no baggage checks.
Among
the inbound luggage there might be the odd flying carpet
bought
by the more outlandish visitor to Tehran’s Grand
Bazaar. But Venezuela’s main international airport is
buzzing with rumors that the “ghost plane” comes
and goes laden with artifacts that would make a TSA official
throw a fit: automatic weapons, electronic gadgets, and suspect
lead crates.
The
mystery that shrouds the Caracas-Tehran air link is symbolic
of the
sinister but also bizarre relationship that is being
swiftly cemented between Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s
quixotic president, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s anti-American
leader. Last month, during a fleeting visit by the Iranian
president to Caracas, Chávez heaped praise on Ahmadinejad
and described him as “one of the greatest anti-imperialist
fighters.”
Why
are Chávez and Ahmadinejad striking such a cozy
relationship, and why, if at all, should it be of concern in
Washington?
One
reason for the alliance is oil. Iran and Venezuela are the
second-
and fifth-largest producers, respectively, in OPEC,
so it’s not unreasonable to expect them to be allies.
But unlike Saudi Arabia, which can produce far more oil and
favors pumping more barrels at a more modest price, in recent
years Tehran and Caracas have become the dominant “hawks” within
the oil cartel, with both seeking ever-deeper output cuts to
drive prices higher.
Yet,
while surging oil prices have showered a foreign exchange
bounty
on both Iran and Venezuela, paradoxically it is these
countries—rather than the oil-import-dependent economies
of the United States and Europe—that are facing nasty
economic consequences. Ahmadinejad and Chávez are, for
example, both fighting losing battles against galloping inflation,
while the staple goods consumed by the people they claim to
care for become scarce as a result of Soviet-era price controls.
No need to topple a government that’s doing a good job
shooting itself in the foot.
If both have faith in the economics of smoke and mirrors,
their governments also share foreign policies oozing with anti-Americanism.
Yet there are subtle differences.
Ahmadinejad’s war of words with Washington stems in
part from the cultural traits and geopolitics of the Middle
East, and in part from the clash over Tehran’s serious
nuclear program—which is drawing Iran into an ever greater
potential conflict not only with the United States, but with
Europe as well.
In
comparison, Chávez’s verbal jousting with
the United States is anti-Americanism “lite.” The
seeds of anti-U.S. sentiment in Latin America were sown almost
200 years ago, when the Monroe Doctrine collided with the politics
of South American independence hero Simón Bolívar.
Chávez fondly portrays himself as Bolívar’s
21st century reincarnation.
But
in Venezuela, appeals to anti-Americanism fall on largely
deaf
ears compared with elsewhere in the continent. Culturally,
the average Brazilian, Argentine, or Colombian has a more vocal
suspicion of Uncle Sam than does his cousin in Caracas. Quite
simply, the average sun-loving Venezuelan dreams of shopping
at a Miami mall, munches on hot dogs, and loves baseball—unlike
his neighbors’ penchant for soccer. A report released
by the Pew Research Center in June found that 56 percent of
Venezuelans had a favorable view of the United States—far
more than Brazilians or Argentines. Even Chávez was
(and still is) a baseball fanatic before he began his conspiratorial
innings in the military.
So,
although Ahmadinejad may count on some support from Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards, when Chávez urges his “subjects” to
resist an “imminent” U.S. invasion on Venezuela’s
beaches, he’s more likely to find them spreading sun-tan
lotion than cocking a rifle.
But
in the nuclear arena, something sinister may be afoot. Emulating
his soul-brother Ahmadinejad, Chávez has voiced
his regime’s desire to acquire nuclear technology, and
Iranian officials have said they would oblige. And that may
already be underway. In recent months, there have been persistent
whispers in intelligence circles suggesting that Iranian scientists
and engineers are prospecting for uranium ore in the granite
bedrock under the southeastern jungles of Venezuela, a region
rich with mineral deposits. It’s difficult to see why
Chávez would want nuclear technology for peaceful, energy-producing
ends: Venezuela has the largest hydrocarbon reserves in the
Americas and it already makes good use of its ample hydroelectricity
generation potential.
Still,
in this regard what should really concern Washington, Venezuela’s neighbors, and the rest of us is the Chávez
regime’s prize-winning record of managerial incompetence.
Since Venezuela’s opposition-aligned executives abandoned
the state oil company and left the keys in the ignition, Chávez’s
cronies have transformed it into an industrial time bomb. Fatal
explosions and “accidents” occur at refineries
with frightening regularity. Transfer that administrative track
record into the area of gas-centrifuge plant and nuclear reactor
supervision and you have a potential Chernobyl redux on your
hands.
To
be sure, it may be many years before Chávez is able
to morph into a tropical Doctor Strangelove and poise his finger
above the red button—and his regime may well have collapsed
long before then, snared in a thicket of economic distortions.
But, if and when that day comes, it may be lead-lined coffins
that are discreetly loaded onto the “ghost plane” that
is Iran Air Flight 745 from Caracas to Tehran.
Andy
Webb-Vidal is
a journalist specializing in Latin America and is an independent
financial and political risk consultant. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
Editor's
Note: This commentary was originally published in Foreign
Policy, Oct. 2007. Petroleumworld reprint this article
in the interest of our readers.
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