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Editorial Commentary / Opinion

 

 

Scott Sullivan: Does Gates work for Cuba ?

 

 

President Obama might want to rethink his invitation to invite Henry Gates to the White House for a beer. This is because some enterprising reporter might think to ask Gates how many times and for what purpose has he visited the White House and the National Security Council since Obama became President. The reporter may ask Henry Gates how many times has he visited the Department of Defense, especially the Joint Staff and the Office of Western Hemisphere Affairs, which reports directly to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. The reporter will also want to know how many times Gates has visited CIA and State.

This enterprising reporter ask if Gates is making policy for these agencies via consulting contracts, especially via Gates’ participation in Joint Staff war games on Cuba, Honduras, Bolivia, and Venezuela. The Joint Staff will typically rely on an expert like Gates to draft political-military scenarios for Latin American countries that will serve as a baseline for US policy in the region.

Moreover, the reporter will ask if Gates has received high level security clearances for attending the Joint Staff sessions.

Finally, the reporter will ask these same questions about Gates’ two two closest professional colleagues, Cornel West, who is a Marxist academic and Charles Ogeltree, who is a Marxist lawyer who advises the Obama family as well as the Black Panther Party.

If our reporter is up to date on Cuba, he will know that Cuba’s intelligence services have great success in the US.

Three years ago the FBI arrested Ana Montez, who was a Cuban spy and at the same time was the senior policy analyst on Cuba for the Defense Intelligence Agency. Montez would personally brief leading defense officials on all important issues pertaining to Cuba.

More recently, earlier this year the FBI arrested two more -- i.e., a husband and wife team -- top ranking Cuban spies. This arrest produced even more anxiety than the arrest of Ana Montez, because the husband was in good position to shape US policy towards Cuba and its allies. He worked as the Senior Director for German and European policy at the State Department’s own CIA, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

In sum, under Secretary Rumsfeld, we knew that Cuban intelligence had access to all US intelligence reports from State and CIA, thanks to Ana Montez. Cunan intelligence also had the abiliy to shape US policy on Cuba thanks to the Cuban spy at State/INR.

It is therefore reasonanable to assume that Cuban intelligence today would take advantage of every opportunity to influence US policy at the White House, so that US policy directs a retreat from South America and Honduras.

Perhaps State is right not to worry about the US retreat from South America. However, State is making a big mistake by downplaying the importance of losing US influence in Honduras, and by aligning US policy for Honduras with Hugo Chavez.

First,if Honduras is in play, then Central America as whole including Panama is in play.

Second, State is wrong to assume that Chavez will prevail in Honduras. Guatemela and Mexico will help Honduras resist Chavez because they know they will be the next target of these extremists.

Third, just as State underestimates the regional opposition to Chavez in Central America, State overestimates the size of the pro-Chavez military axis. Let me be blunt. Fidel Castro and Daniel Ortega are too experienced and too smart to send weapons and volunteers to fight in Honduras, especially with Hugo Chavez calling the policy.

Without military support from Cuba and Nicaragua, Chavez would be helpless in Honduras. Chavez’ military lacks the training and weapons to fight in Nicaragua. Chavez has devoted no resources to train his forces for foreign intervention. However, Chavez has spent billions of dollars on advanced Russian weapons that will never be used, except in Chavez’s imaginary wars against Brazil and Colombia.

Moreover, Russia, which supplies most of Chavez’s advanced weapons, will say no to war in Honduras, as will China and Iran.

In short, on this occasion Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales have overstepped their limits and are certain to lose. Hugo Chavez’ so called Bolivian revolution will perish in Honduras, with Castro and Ortega watching from the sidelines. In this context, Honduran forces, even in the face of US State Department hostility and harassment, appear to have a 5 to 1 military advantage – at a minimum -- over pro-Chavez forces in Honduras.


Given this overwhelming military advantage in Honduras for the anti-Chavez forces, our intrepid reporter must seek the answer to one final question -- What are the names of those officials at the White House, NSC, Joint Staff, Defense, State and CIA who favored abandoning Honduras and all of Central America to Hugo Chavez and Daniel Ortega?


 

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 - 1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 07/28/09

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