Editorial / Commentary / Opinion
Scott Sullivan: Obama Trumps Ahmadinejad
Within the short space of forty-eight hours, President Obama has outfoxed President Amadinejad on nuclear issues by forcing Iran into fast track negotiations where Obama will have the diplomatic advantage. Obama is already displaying his power over Ahmadinejad by insisting on a very short two week timeline for compliance with Obama's demand to open his secret nuclear reprocessing facilities to IAEA inspection.
After Ahmadinejad meets this demand, he will faced with another Obama demand, and then another, until Obama has restructured Iran’s nuclear program to bring it in line with UN and IAEA standards.
Obama will then use his diplomatic leverage to restrain Iranian imperialism in Iraq and Latin America. To this end Obama will insist that Iran withdraw its terrorists and dismantle its terrorist bases in Iraq and throughout Latin America.
This Obama demand will deliver two powerful blows against Iranian imperialism.
Above all, ending Iran’s military presence in Iraq will end Ahmadinejad’s dream of dominating the Middle East.
With Iraq under Ahmadinejad’s control, he would control Iraq’s armed forces, which would automatically align with Ahmadinejad’s attacks on Israel and the Arab states. Iraq would serve as a corridor for military resupply from Iran through Iraq to Syria.
Moreover, the Iranian people will be shocked to learn the financial details of Ahmadinejad’s support for terrorism in Latin America, where few Muslims reside. The Iranian people will also be shocked to learn that Iran’s support for Latin American terrorism dates back more than twenty years and that a prominent former Iranian president, Rafsanjani, is today a fugitive from Argentine justice due to his deep involvement in Argentine terrorism in the 1990’s.
How did President Obama gain this diplom atic leverage over Iran? Obama gained leverage because he has a good plan of his own.
First, Obama played his cards right with Russia a short time ago when he gained Russia’s good will on Iran sanctions by Obama’s abandonment of the US missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Second, Obama played his cards right by withholding public disclosure of the existence of Iran’s secret facility for reprocessing nuclear fuel until this week, at which point the revelation fueled international anger at Iran and its provocative policies.
Third, Obama is able to coerce Iran via access to what the diplomats like to call a “club in the closet.” This particular “club in the closet” exists as a result of Washington speculation that a possible Obama-Osama Axis against Iran is under consideration – a concept that the Iranian people would fear.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 - 1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 09/28/09
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