World

 

Brazil

Mexico

Bolivia

Peru

Trinidad &
Tobago

Venezuela







Very usefull links



 

 


Editorial / Commentary / Opinion

 

 

 

Rafael Sandrea: Future offshore/onshore
crude oil production capacities

 

 

Offshore crude oil production started in the 1940s and has grown consistently from a modest 1 million b/d (mbd) in the 1960s to 24 mbd today. In fact, offshore has been the main source of growth for world oil production as onshore has essentially plateaued during the last 2 decades; during the last recession it dropped 10 mb/d from a high of 54 mbd in 1979 and has yet to recoup this potential. Offshore crude oil output now accounts for almost one-third of the world’s production. In fact offshore is the only growing segment of the industry. It is without doubt the new oil & gas frontier.

Why the emphasis on crude oil? Well it is the underground oil and the mainstay of the total petroleum liquids supply contributing 83%; additional ‘light liquids’ are NGLs ( 12%), refinery gains (3%), and unconventionals (2%) such as ethanol, CTLs, GTLs, etc. Reserves refer to crude oil.

Oddly enough, global crude oil outlooks from most institutions (IEA, EIA, CERA, etc.) have avoided segregating their predictions along onshore and offshore lines and just show the total result. The production behavior of these two segments, however, is markedly different. Onshore consists mostly of mature fields which will reach the half-life of their reserves in 2010, subsequently going on decline. Offshore, on the other hand, has a strong mix of new and old fields and should continue to grow for another 6 years. Half of the global oil discoveries (reserves) over the last 20 years came from offshore fields!

A recent assessment of offshore reserves indicates an EUR of 600 billion barrels of which roughly 40% have been produced through 2008. The production capacity of these reserves as generated by our production model1– with a reliability of 90+ % – is summarized below:

Table 1 Future Global Crude Oil Production Capacity
mbd

 

EIA Model

Production

Capacity

Model

 

Total

Total

Onshore

Offshore

2010

73.9

71.2

42.3

28.9

2020

82.1

70.0

42.3

27.8

2030

93.1

62.5

42.3

20.2

The table gives the crude oil production capacity outlook through 2030 broken down for offshore and onshore. For the purpose of comparison the results of the latest EIA outlook are also illustrated. Their overall results are notably higher: 17% higher by 2020 and 50% by 2030!


 

Dr. Rafael Sandrea, Phd. Venezuelan born, graduated cum laude in petroleum engineering from the University of Tulsa and received his Ph.D from Penn State University, with an extensive career in Petroleum, in 1974, he founded a Caracas-base engineering company ITS Servicios Tecnicos, carrying out projects around the world. He is co author with Dr. Ralph Nilsen of the extensively used book, Dynamics of Petroleum Reservoirs under Gas Injection, Gulf Publishing, 1974. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.


Editor's Note:
All comments posted and published on Petroleumworld, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of Petroleumworld. All comments expressed are private comments and do not necessary reflect the view of this website. All comments are posted and published without liability to Petroleumworld.

Fair use Notice: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of environmental and humanitarian significance. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml.

All works published by Petroleumworld are in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.Petroleumworld has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is Petroleumworld endorsed or sponsored by the originator.Petroleumworld encourages persons to reproduce, reprint, or broadcast Petroleumworld articles provided that any such reproduction identify the original source, http://www.petroleumworld.com or else and it is done within the fair use as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.
If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
Internet web links to http://www.petroleumworld.com are appreciated

Petroleumworld welcomes your feedback and comments, share your thoughts on this article, your feedback is important to us!We invite all our readers to share with us their views and comments about this article, write to editor@petroleumworld.com

Petroleumworld News 11/23/09

Copyright© 2008 respective author or news agency. All rights reserved.

We welcome the use of Petroleumworld™ stories by anyone provided it mentions Petroleumworld.com as the source. Other stories you have to get authorization by its authors

Send this story to a friend Any question or suggestions,

please write to:
editor@petroleumworld.com

Best Viewed with IE 5.01+
Windows NT 4.0, '95, '98 and ME +/ 800x600 pixels

 


TOP

Contact: editor@petroleumworld.com/phone:(58 212) 635 7252, (58 412) 996 3730 or
(58  412) 952 5301

Editor:Elio C. Ohep A/Producer - Publisher:Elio Ohep /
Contact Email: editor@petroleumworld.com
CopyRight © 1999-2006, Elio Ohep - All Rights Reserved. Legal Information
- CCS office Tele
phone/Teléfonos Oficina: (58 212) 635 7252
PW in Top 100 Energy Sites

Technorati Profile

Fair use notice of copyrighted material:
This site is a public free site and it contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner.We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of business, environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have chosen to view the included information for research, information, and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission fromPetroleumworld or the copyright owner of the material.