Charlie Devereux/Time :Venezuela:
opponents hope to strike out Chávez
No event on the sporting calendar gets Venezuelans more animated than the
rivalry between the country's two largest baseball teams, the Lions of Caracas
and the Navigators of Magallanes, based in Valencia. But this season's
championship series had an extra — and unexpected — ingredient thrown into the mix: politics. During the seven-game play-off, fans displayed banners bearing the slogan: "One, two, three. Electricity, water, crime. President — you've struck out!"
Hugo Chávez, a huge Magallanes fan, wasn't at the games but he was certainly watching. "How do they think they're going to strike out Chávez? They're the ones who have struck out," he said, visibly riled, on television on Thursday. Referring to his electoral victories, he declared, "I've struck them out 11 times and I'll strike them out again." The opposition can claim only one poll victory — a referendum in December 2007 — against Chávez since he took office in February 1999. (See Hugo Chávez's grip on Venezuela's presidency.)
But Chávez is indeed under pressure from a growing list of domestic problems, especially the three brought up by the protest banner: power and water shortages and a rise in crime. He blames water and electricity shortages on a drought caused by El Niño. A report released at Christmas by one of the state electricity companies predicted a national collapse within 120 days if drastic measures were not taken. Venezuela is experiencing a crime wave, recording 14,467 murders and 518 kidnappings last year, a rise of over 40% from 2008. (See Venezuela's plague of kidnappings.)
To alleviate drought, Chávez has turned to Cuba for "cloud-seeding" technology. He has also instituted unpopular water and electricity rationing to ensure the country's hydroelectric dams are not drained before the rains come in June. State employees are being sent home at lunchtime and factories forced to cut hours back by 20%. He had to sack his recently appointed Electricity Minister after a chaotic first day of rationing in Caracas. As a result, the President's popularity has fallen sharply from 62% last February to the mid-40s now.
And so the opposition felt it was an opportune time to raise the issue at the most-watched baseball game of the year — where politics almost never rears its head. More than 60% of the country follows the sport, which has an audience that crosses social and political boundaries. "Usually, when a politician goes to the stadium and he's someone that people know is a fan, it doesn't matter what they think of him, no one bothers him," says Ramon Guillermo Aveledo, a political analyst at the Metropolitan University in Caracas and former president of the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League. Says Ivan Uzcategui, president of the student union at the University of Carabobo in Valencia and one of the instigators of the protests: "It seemed like a good moment to reach many more people, especially those who are distanced from what is going on."
Venezuelan TV stations, already cowed by government control of broadcasting licenses, were unsure about how to cover the protests at the game. There were suddenly no wide shots, nor was there much of the camera panning the stadium and the crowd. "The game looks like it was shot by Godard, with crazy, incomprehensible close-ups," one comment on a blog complained. Venevision drew accusations of self-censorship when it appeared to cut away from shots showing the protest banner, which was placed behind home base. Nevertheless, chants of "Chávez, you've struck out!" could be heard above the commentators' nervous talk — especially after the power momentarily went out in the stadium during the 9th inning. While the opposition protests at the games were greeted by general cheers, the Chavistas responded with their own banner "Uh! Ah! Chávez No Se Va!" "Uh! Ah! Chávez isn't going anywhere."
Chávez has never gone out to a ball game. Recalls Aveledo, "When I was president of the league, I always as a courtesy invited him to make the first pitch [of the season]. He always excused himself. He's done it at the Mets' stadium. But here? Never." Aveledo adds, "Since he's been President he has never dared to go to a public baseball stadium. Why? Because he has become accustomed in these years to going to events with crowds of�his own supporters. But to a crowd that hasn't been mobilized by anyone — he wouldn't dare."
With National Assembly elections scheduled for September, opposition figures see the President's plummeting approval ratings as a chance to gain political momentum. Consultores 21, a local polling firm, estimates that opposition candidates would win 52% of the votes under current circumstances. Momentum, however, is something the opposition has been very good at frittering away. With around half a dozen parties making up the loose Unity Table coalition, it has a long way to go just to reach consensus on key issues. The members of the coalition have yet to even decide on how to select candidates for office, with some favoring primaries while others prefer appointment by decree. Says Oscar Reyes, a political analyst at the Central University of Venezuela, "The opposition has a market but we have yet to see whether they have a product to sell."
Chávez's team, Magallanes lost the series 3-4, even though it led going into the final games. But, politically, Venezuela's President has "not struck out," says Reyes. "He's on two strikes and two balls but he still has something up his sleeve." That something includes a new electoral law that will benefit Chávez's conglomerate United Socialist Parties of Venezuela in the September vote. Critics also accuse the government of gerrymandering — shifting electoral boundaries in their favor. So for all the opposition's recent gains, everything comes down to that old piece of Zen wisdom: "It isn't over till it's over."
See Venezuela vs. Colombia in the top 10 feuds of 2009.
Read why Obama's Latin American policy looks like Bush's.
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Petroleumworld News 02/09/2010
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